Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Zumiez, Inc. (ZUMZ)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$14.55-7.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.88 → 0.88 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ZUMZ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS loss narrows to no worse than -$0.08 | A primary condition in Zumiez, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -$0.08. | Broken | EPS loss exceeds -$0.08 | Diluted EPS: $-0.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -$0.08. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Sep 10, 2026-0.17 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-cap retail recovery story, not a proven durable compounder: results are weak and the company remains loss-making on the earnings-quality measure. The long-term thesis is on watch, with medium confidence, as improving quarterly profitability has not yet overcome recent sales weakness.
The valuation model describes ZUMZ as carrying a durable premium versus peers, while its expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear demanding relative to the model’s view. The priced-in assessment calls the valuation justified and finds low fragility, but that does not remove the risk that weak results and consecutive earnings misses challenge those expectations.
Near term, revenue delivery is mixed: sales rose from the first to the second quarter, but third-quarter-to-date sales declined, despite management projecting higher third-quarter net sales. Profitability improved as the quarterly EPS loss narrowed, and management projects a small third-quarter profit range, though the recent earnings miss and elevated risk make execution uncertain.
The multi-year thesis hinges on sustained sales growth and continued progress toward profitability, rather than one improving quarter. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ZUMZ remains a watch-stage recovery thesis with some evidence of improving profitability, but sales softness, earnings-miss risk, and a premium versus peers are important constraints. The thesis needs more consistent execution to become clearer. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Zumiez, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $210 million. |
| Broken |
| Quarterly revenue falls below $210 million |
Revenue: $208.964M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $210 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Sep 10, 2026208,964,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchase program of $40 million executed | The company started a $40 million share buyback program. | Intact | No meaningful share repurchases by 2026-Q4 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company repurchased 1.2 million shares during the second quarter of 2026 at an average cost including commission of $19.30 per share and a total cost of $23.2 million.” “The Company repurchased 0.3 million shares during the first quarter of 2026 at an average cost including commission of $23.56 per share and a total cost of $6.2 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.37 → $0.88 · observed estimates
$0.97B → $0.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.37 | $967,763,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.50 | $978,984,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.50 | $978,984,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.50 | $978,984,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.50 | $978,984,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.50 | $978,984,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.50 | $978,984,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.50 | $978,984,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.50 | $978,984,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.50 | $978,984,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.46 | $976,120,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.25 | $964,671,050 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.88 | $940,906,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.88 | $940,906,350 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.