If INTC cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.

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Today's tape

Mon, Jun 15

Stocks rose on Monday. The S&P 500 gained 1.7%. Technology led with a 3.8% gain, while energy companies fell 3.5%. Seven of 11 groups finished higher.

Volatile· 6 sessions2 of 5 forces leaning against the market

It has been a volatile stretch. One of the last 6 sessions fell hard, and average daily swings were 1.0% versus 0.6% normally.

Technology is the only group ahead of the market over two months, up 24.0% versus the market. Energy companies lag most, down 20.5% versus the market, after oil worries swung sharply.Show all →

Worst today: Energy · 60d leader: Information Technology +24.0%

MaterialsFinancialsIndustrialsConsumer DiscretionaryReal EstateConsumer StaplesHealth CareCommunication ServicesUtilitiesEnergyInformation Technology

Interest rates

Trending Up

Rates still high

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates on June 17, with high confidence. The expected rate is 3.63%. The short-term rate the Federal Reserve sets is 3.62%. Markets now think another rate increase is possible this year. That keeps pressure on stocks that depend on lower borrowing costs.

Headline prices rose 4.25% over the last year in May. That is up from 3.81% in April and 3.26% in March. Core prices rose 2.82% over the last year in May. Core prices were 2.74% in April and 2.6% in March. Energy is driving much of the headline jump. This keeps inflation central to the next rate call for stocks.

Growth picked up after a weak late 2025. The economy grew at a 1.6% yearly pace in 2026 Q1. That followed 0.5% in 2025 Q4 and 4.4% in 2025 Q3. Growth over the last year was 2.6%. This gives companies some earnings support, but the recent pace is modest.

The latest jobs report showed 172,000 jobs added in May. Hiring slowed from 214,000 in March to 179,000 in April. The three-month average is 136,000 jobs added. Unemployment was 4.3% in May, matching March and April. A steady job market can keep the Federal Reserve patient. That can leave stocks sensitive to rate news.

Recession warning signs are not flashing right now. The 12-month recession chance is 0.154. The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury rates is 39 basis points. That means longer-term rates are above shorter-term rates. This lowers near-term recession pressure on stocks.

Recession signals

What moved · Mon, Jun 15Show →

QQQ jumped +3.1% on the day (+2.2σ vs its normal range).
XLE fell -3.5% on the day (-2.2σ vs its normal range).
XLK jumped +3.8% on the day (+2.0σ vs its normal range).
Market +1.7% on the day. Headline CPI reaccelerated to 4.2% on energy (23.0% YoY) while core held at 2.8% and is not broadening - a supply/energy print, not underlying inflation. The move concentrated in the longest-duration, most rate-sensitive growth - that cohort fell -0.0% vs the market's +1.7% (worst: energy) - i.e. multiple compression, not a fundamental break. Company-specific exceptions to watch (moved well beyond their rate-sensitive peers): CMTL (-43.0%), CNTX (-51.

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