What changed across this sample portfolio.

The Federal Reserve meets on September 16. The call is a hold, with moderate confidence. The expected short-term rate is 3.71%. Markets lean toward a hike, while the model leans hold. Core prices rose 3.3% over the last year on the measure the Federal Reserve watches most. Higher rate odds keep pressure on stocks hurt by borrowing costs.

Core prices are cooling, but headline prices are still higher. Core inflation eased to 2.47% in July from 2.57% in June. Headline inflation eased to 3.36% in July from 3.53% in June. It is still above February's 2.41% reading. Higher oil prices remain a concern in the news. Inflation matters because it shapes the next rate decision for stocks.

Growth is modest. The economy grew at a 1.5% yearly pace in the second quarter. That slowed from 2.1% in the first quarter. It is still better than the 0.5% pace in late 2025. Industrial production rose 1.3% over the last year. Modest growth gives companies room to earn, but not much extra cushion.

The latest jobs report showed 162,000 jobs added in August. That bounced from 21,000 in July and 31,000 in June. The three-month average is 71,000 jobs. Unemployment held at 4.1% in August and July. Stronger hiring revived talk of higher rates. That can unsettle stocks, even when the job market looks steady.

Recession signs are not flashing right now. The 10-year Treasury rate is above the 2-year Treasury rate. That is the normal shape for bond rates. The chance of a recession within 12 months is about 15%. This keeps the market focused more on rates and inflation than recession risk.