Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$48.12-5.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AAP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AAP — President transition
Dated 2026-06-26
Executive Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer — Kristen L. Soler: Ms. Soler is leaving the Company to pursue other opportunities.
Why it matters: AAP returned to positive year-to-date free cash flow after two years of outflows. The year-end result will test that progress.
Watch forAAP reports positive free cash flow for 2026 and keeps its full-year goal near $100 million.
Also watch forAAP reports negative full-year free cash flow or cuts its $100 million goal.
Why it matters: AAP cut its store opening plan and raised its market hub plan. The revised counts will show how the expansion plan is taking shape.
Watch forAAP reports 30–35 store openings and 15–20 market hub openings for 2026.
Also watch forAAP reports fewer than 30 store openings or fewer than 15 market hub openings for 2026.
Why it matters: AAP said tighter household budgets hurt DIY sales in Q2. The November retail sales report offers a fresh read on consumer spending.
Watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows growth from the prior month.
Also watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows a decline from the prior month.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $491 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,862 loss on $10,000 · 38.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.