Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.18+3.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AAP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers
AAP — President transition
Dated 2026-06-26
Executive Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer — Kristen L. Soler: Ms. Soler is leaving the Company to pursue other opportunities.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better financial health. It can help future investments.
Supportive ifFree cash flow was about $100 million or more.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported as negative again.
Why it matters: This shows a steady plan for spending money. It helps improve operations.
Supportive ifCapital spending is $300 million or less for 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is more than $300 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in leaders can change the company's path and how it works.
Worry ifNew leadership appointments that align with strategic goals.
Less concerning ifMore leaders leaving or problems in leadership roles.
Why it matters: More openings would show strong growth plans and confidence in market demand.
Supportive ifNew store openings reported at 46 or more.
Worry ifNew store openings reported at 45 or fewer.
Why it matters: Higher spending may show growth plans or money problems. This can affect future profits.
Watch forSpending was over $300 million.
Also watch forSpending was under $300 million.
Why it matters: A margin above 3.8% shows the company is managing costs well and making more money.
Supportive ifOperating income margin for Q3 is above 3.8%.
Worry ifOperating income margin for Q3 is below 3.8%.
Why it matters: Lower free cash flow would indicate cash generation issues. This could impact future investments and dividends.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $100 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow meets or exceeds $100 million.
Why it matters: A big drop in DIY sales shows problems with consumer spending.
Worry ifDIY sales decline more than 5% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Less concerning ifDIY sales stabilize or grow in Q3 compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Cynthia Jamison's experience may affect decisions. Her input could help the company.
Supportive ifGood news or strategy changes are tied to Cynthia Jamison's role on the board.
Worry ifNo clear changes or bad news after her appointment.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow shows ongoing money problems. This could worry investors.
Worry ifQ2 free cash flow reported as negative.
Less concerning ifQ2 free cash flow reported as positive.
Why it matters: Better store sales show recovery from the recent drop. It means more consumer spending and better management.
Supportive ifQ3 comparable store sales growth exceeds 1.0% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 comparable store sales growth remains below 1.0% year over year.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows better financial health. It means the company can fund its operations.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow remains positive.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow turns negative.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $509 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,931 loss on $10,000 · 39.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.