ADBE
Adobe Inc.NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ADBE has a composite score of 34.5 and a signal label of "favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 79.5 and an elevated risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor, with guidance credibility at 100.0 and valuation considered inexpensive at 91.1. The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.05
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $5.83 → $5.83 (-0.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 29 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 3 maintained. 41% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning — often a turnaround setup.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
9 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve revenue and EPS targets for FY2026growthmixed65% progress
3/12: “Adobe reaffirmed its FY2026 targets, including revenue of $25.90 billion to $26.10 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $23.77 billion in FY2025 to a target range of $25.90 billion to $26.10 billion in FY2026. Adobe is on track with its growth strategy, reaffirming its targets for FY2026.
- 2.Implement $25 billion stock repurchase programcapital allocationon track77% progress
4/21: “Adobe announced a new stock repurchase program granting authority to repurchase up to $25 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Adobe announced a $25 billion stock repurchase program, aiming to return value to shareholders and reduce share count over time. This initiative is a significant capital allocation strategy for Adobe.
- 3.Conduct CEO succession planningtalentmixed65% progress
3/12: “Shantanu Narayen decided to transition from his position as CEO after a successor is appointed.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adobe is actively conducting CEO succession planning as Shantanu Narayen transitions from his role. This priority is crucial for leadership continuity and strategic direction.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-28 | $2.60 – $2.65 | $2.71 | beat |
| 2023-11-30 | $3.10 – $3.15 | $4.27 | beat |
| 2024-02-29 | $4.35 – $4.40 | $4.48 | beat |
| 2024-05-31 | $3.35 – $3.40 | $3.49 | beat |
| 2024-08-31 | $4.50 – $4.55 | $4.65 | beat |
| 2024-11-30 | $3.58 – $3.63 | $4.81 | beat |
| 2025-02-28 | $3.85 – $3.90 | $5.08 | beat |
| 2026-02-28 | $4.55 – $4.60 | $4.60 | inside |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 41%; 252d 32%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −46%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — -0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 47/100, drawdown 7/100, beta 0/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 14.2% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve revenue and EPS targets for FY2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Adobe aims to meet its revenue and EPS targets for fiscal year 2026, reflecting its growth strategy.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $23.77 billion in FY2025 to a target range of $25.90 billion to $26.10 billion in FY2026. Adobe is on track with its growth strategy, reaffirming its targets for FY2026.
Revenue grew from $23.77 billion in FY2025 to $25.90 billion to $26.10 billion in FY202665%CEO/CFO:“Adobe reaffirmed its FY2026 targets, including revenue of $25.90 billion to $26.10 billion.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-12Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Adobe reaffirmed its FY2026 targets, including revenue of $25.90 billion to $26.10 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Adobe targets FY2026 Total Adobe ending ARR to grow over 10%.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Were pleased to once again raise our FY25 total revenue and EPS targets.”
- #2
Implement $25 billion stock repurchase program
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Adobe plans to repurchase up to $25 billion in common stock through April 2030.
Mixed →On trackNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Adobe announced a $25 billion stock repurchase program, aiming to return value to shareholders and reduce share count over time. This initiative is a significant capital allocation strategy for Adobe.
77%CEO/CFO:“Adobe announced a new stock repurchase program granting authority to repurchase up to $25 billion.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-04-21Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Adobe announced a new stock repurchase program granting authority to repurchase up to $25 billion.”
- #3
Conduct CEO succession planning
TalentNew since 2026-05-04Adobe is conducting a search for a successor to CEO Shantanu Narayen, who will transition from his role.
Watch →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adobe is actively conducting CEO succession planning as Shantanu Narayen transitions from his role. This priority is crucial for leadership continuity and strategic direction.
65%CEO/CFO:“Shantanu Narayen decided to transition from his position as CEO after a successor is appointed.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-12Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Shantanu Narayen decided to transition from his position as CEO after a successor is appointed.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Adobe is conducting a search for Mr. Narayens successor.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADBE Adobe Inc. | +35 | inexpensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-03-12)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-03-12)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2118d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Amendment and Restatement of 2019 Equity Incentive Plan On April 15, 2026, at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “ Annual Meeting ”) of Adobe Inc. (the “ Company ” or “ Adobe ”), the Company’s stockholders approved the Adobe Inc. 2019 Equity Incentive Plan, as amended (the “ 2019 Plan ”), to increase the available share reserve by 12…
executive changeneutralscore 37 - 2026-04-2118d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On April 21, 2026, Adobe announced that our Board of Directors approved a new stock repurchase program granting Adobe authority to repurchase up to $25 billion in common stock through April 30, 2030. A copy of the press release is furnished and attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Under our new stock repurchase program, which is designed to return value to our stockholders, minimize dilution from stock issuances and reduce share count over tim…
capital allocationpositivescore 34 - 2026-03-121mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 9, 2026, Shantanu Narayen notified Adobe of his decision to transition from his role as Adobe’s Chief Executive Officer. Adobe is conducting a search for Mr. Narayen’s successor. Mr. Narayen will remain as Adobe’s Chief Executive Officer until his successor is appointed. Mr. Narayen will remain as Chair of Adobe’s Board of Directors.
executive changeneutralscore 21 - 2026-03-121mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, Adobe Inc. (“Adobe”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its first quarter fiscal year 2026 ended February 27, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished and attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report and the exhibit attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 18 - 2026-01-273mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) 2026 Performance Share Program On January 26, 2026, the Executive Compensation Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Adobe Inc. (the “Company” or “Adobe”) approved the 2026 Performance Share Program (the “Program”) under the terms of the Company’s 2019 Equity Incentive Plan, as amended (the “2019 Plan”), and gra…
executive changeneutralscore 8
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.