Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-28 · fmp
Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$246.44-0.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
27.73 → 27.63 EPS · FY ending Nov 28, 2027 · 24 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 24 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADBE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS target of ~$24.4 in FY26 | A primary condition in Adobe Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$24.4. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $22 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $4.62 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$24.4. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 22, 20264.62 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large software business with a multi-year thesis centered on continued delivery against rising revenue and earnings targets. The thesis is intact, though recent results are mixed and risk is elevated.
The evidence describes Adobe as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 0.37 premium relative to peers and a negative expectations gap. These signals conflict, and valuation model confidence is low, so the market’s assumptions are not clear from the evidence.
Near term, management remains on track with FY2026 targets, which have been raised or reaffirmed, and Q3 2026 revenue grew 13% year over year. However, a recent earnings miss and a reported run of consecutive misses leave execution risk, while the CEO transition is planned but still a mixed management signal.
The multi-year thesis depends on Adobe continuing to deliver its FY2026 revenue and earnings targets without reversing recent guidance increases. Near term, rate cuts or stabilization among major software peers could support the sector backdrop; weaker guidance would raise credibility concerns.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the business case remains intact, supported by rising targets and recent revenue growth, but elevated risk and mixed recent performance make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “– Sept. 10, 2026 – Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE), the global technology leader that unleashes creativity and productivity for individuals and businesses through innovative platforms and tools, today reported financial results for its third quarter FY2026 ended Aug.” “– Sept. 10, 2026 – Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE), the global technology leader that unleashes creativity and productivity for individuals and businesses through innovative platforms and tools, today reported financial results for its third quarter FY2026 ended Aug.” Revenue was $6.760 billion in 2026-Q3.
Successful CEO and CFO succession planning | A supporting condition in Adobe Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Clear CEO and CFO succession plan implemented by end of FY26. | Improving | No clear succession plan or multiple executive departures by FY26 end | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue target of ~$26.55B in FY26 | A primary condition in Adobe Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$26.55B. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $24B in FY26 | Revenue: $6.76B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$26.55B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 22, 20266,760,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “– Sept. 10, 2026 – Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE), the global technology leader that unleashes creativity and productivity for individuals and businesses through innovative platforms and tools, today reported financial results for its third quarter FY2026 ended Aug.” “– Sept. 10, 2026 – Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE), the global technology leader that unleashes creativity and productivity for individuals and businesses through innovative platforms and tools, today reported financial results for its third quarter FY2026 ended Aug.” Revenue was $6.760 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Continue $25B stock repurchase program | A supporting condition in Adobe Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase at least 8.5 million shares per quarter. | Intact | Repurchases fall below 5 million shares per quarter | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$27.48 → $27.63 · observed estimates
$28.89B → $29.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $27.48 | $28,891,351,241 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-07-25 | $27.48 | $28,891,351,241 | 21 / 25 |
| 2026-07-26 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-07-27 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-07-28 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-07-29 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-07-30 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-07-31 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-01 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-02 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-03 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-04 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-05 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-06 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-07 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-08 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-09 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-10 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-11 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-12 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-13 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-14 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-15 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-08-16 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-17 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-18 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-19 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-20 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-21 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-22 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-23 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-24 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-25 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-26 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-27 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-28 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-29 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-30 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-31 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-01 | $27.51 | $28,929,396,556 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-02 | $27.48 | $28,941,615,921 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-03 | $27.48 | $28,941,615,921 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-04 | $27.48 | $28,941,627,452 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-05 | $27.48 | $28,941,627,452 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-06 | $27.48 | $28,941,627,452 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-07 | $27.48 | $28,941,627,452 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-08 | $27.48 | $28,941,627,452 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-09 | $27.48 | $28,941,627,458 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-10 | $27.48 | $28,941,627,458 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-11 | $27.60 | $29,003,799,007 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-12 | $27.71 | $29,032,678,340 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-13 | $27.71 | $29,032,678,340 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-14 | $27.70 | $29,061,466,966 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-15 | $27.72 | $29,078,183,139 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-16 | $27.73 | $29,078,183,139 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-17 | $27.73 | $29,078,183,139 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-18 | $27.73 | $29,078,183,139 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-19 | $27.73 | $29,078,183,139 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-20 | $27.73 | $29,081,261,385 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-09-21 | $27.73 | $29,081,261,385 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-09-22 | $27.76 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-09-23 | $27.76 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-09-24 | $27.76 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-09-25 | $27.76 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-09-26 | $27.76 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-09-27 | $27.76 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-09-28 | $27.76 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-09-29 | $27.76 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-09-30 | $27.76 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-01 | $27.76 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-02 | $27.76 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-03 | $27.73 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-04 | $27.73 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-05 | $27.73 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-06 | $27.73 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-07 | $27.73 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-08 | $27.73 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-09 | $27.73 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-10 | $27.73 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-11 | $27.73 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-12 | $27.73 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-13 | $27.73 | $29,096,659,114 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-14 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-15 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-16 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-17 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-18 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-19 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-20 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-21 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-22 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-23 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-24 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-25 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-26 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-27 | $27.73 | $29,080,847,625 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-28 | $27.73 | $29,061,980,311 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-29 | $27.73 | $29,061,984,244 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-30 | $27.73 | $29,061,984,244 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-10-31 | $27.73 | $29,061,984,244 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-11-01 | $27.73 | $29,061,984,244 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-11-02 | $27.73 | $29,061,984,244 | 24 / 28 |
| 2026-11-03 | $27.63 | $29,057,579,859 | 25 / 29 |
| 2026-11-04 | $27.63 | $29,057,579,859 | 24 / 29 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 24 Hold · 6 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.