Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$266.51-6.73%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADBE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 120 industry peers
ADBE — officer change
Dated 2026-07-17
Louise Pentland: The company approved a retention letter providing severance benefits for Louise Pentland.
Why it matters: Earnings per share guidance shows Adobe's profit and financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS reported above $4.45.
Worry ifQ3 EPS reported below $4.40.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plan could change future financial goals and investor trust.
Watch forNew CFO Steve Day provides guidance that meets or exceeds prior targets.
Also watch forNew CFO Steve Day issues lower guidance than expected.
Why it matters: A new CFO might change the financial strategy. This could affect investor confidence.
Watch forA permanent CFO has been appointed.
Also watch forThe CFO position is still vacant or remains interim.
Why it matters: News about succession planning can affect how investors feel. It also guides company direction.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new CEO or clear timeline for succession.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the succession planning process.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plan will be important for Adobe's finances after the leadership change.
Watch forThe new CFO presents a clear financial strategy that aligns with growth targets.
Also watch forThe new CFO provides vague or unclear financial guidance.
Why it matters: This guidance is a key indicator of Adobe's growth momentum. Meeting or exceeding it would show strong demand.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue was over $6.72 billion.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue was under $6.67 billion.
Why it matters: This program shows Adobe cares about its shareholders. Progress shows good financial health.
Supportive ifAdobe finished its $25 billion stock buyback program.
Worry ifAdobe fails to repurchase shares as planned or announces a pause in the program.
Why it matters: The CFO change is important for financial stability and trust from investors. A good choice can help growth.
Supportive ifAdobe has a new CFO with a strong background in tech finance.
Worry ifThere is still uncertainty or delays in finding a permanent CFO.
Why it matters: The growth rate of AI-first ARR is a key measure of Adobe's innovation success. Strong growth signals market leadership.
Supportive ifAI-first ARR growth rate reported above 100% year over year.
Worry ifAI-first ARR growth rate reported below 50% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $440 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,737 loss on $10,000 · 47.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.