Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$246.44-0.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADBE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 11.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers
ADBE — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-08
CEO — Shantanu Narayen: The filing announces the planned retirement of CEO Shantanu Narayen and his orderly succession by internal candidate Anil Chakravarthy, which constitutes a planned leadership transition rather than a sudden loss of executive talent.
Why it matters: Adobe raised its FY2026 targets and reported 13% Q3 revenue growth. Results inside the new ranges would show continued delivery.
Supportive ifFY2026 revenue is at least $26.576 billion and non-GAAP EPS is at least $24.45.
Worry ifFY2026 revenue is below $26.576 billion or non-GAAP EPS is below $24.45.
Why it matters: Adobe linked AI product growth to wider customer reach. A sharp slowdown would weaken that proof of demand.
Watch forAt the next results, Adobe reports AI-first ARR growth above 150% year over year.
Also watch forAt the next results, Adobe reports AI-first ARR growth below 100% year over year.
Why it matters: A smooth handoff would support continuity as Adobe enters its next chapter. A delay or a change in the plan would raise doubt.
Watch forAdobe confirms Anil Chakravarthy becomes CEO on time, with no more delays.
Also watch forAdobe delays or changes the announced CEO succession plan, or reports a gap in the CEO role.
Why it matters: Adobe has repurchased shares since the board approved the program. Continued purchases would show it is using the plan.
Supportive ifAdobe reports share buybacks next quarter. Total purchases rise above 26.1 million shares.
Worry ifAdobe reports no share repurchases in the next quarter, or says it paused the program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$190 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $440 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,590 loss on $10,000 · 45.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.