Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$266.51-6.73%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADBE
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $267 ADBE trades at 12× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median. Our $341 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $190–$379. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $250.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $632.97 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $646.69 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $121.24 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$190.00 – $379.00 (median $250.00) · 25 analysts · as of 2026-09-03
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $669.54 |
| 27.4 |
| 24.40 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $266.51 | 13.6 | 19.89 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $490.41 | 18.6 | 26.40 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $426.38 | 17.5 | 24.40 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $236.03 | 3.8 | 62.60 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $446.91 | 18.3 | 24.40 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $104.74 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $290.02 | 11.9 | 24.40 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $650.89 | 27.4 | 23.72 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $1051.02 | 27.4 | 38.30 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $702.09 | 18.6 | 37.80 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $528.45 | 17.5 | 30.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $298.36 | 3.8 | 79.14 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $553.89 | 18.3 | 30.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $359.44 | 11.9 | 30.24 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $1419.60 | 27.4 | 51.73 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $891.82 | 18.6 | 48.01 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $586.68 | 17.5 | 33.57 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $331.24 | 3.8 | 87.86 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $614.92 | 18.3 | 33.57 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $399.05 | 11.9 | 33.57 | Analyst | high |