Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-07-07
$221.54+1.59%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $221.54. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $222 ADBE trades at 9.7× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $458 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $190–$447. Note: our $458 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($190–$447). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $255.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $1124.50 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1154.08 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $121.24 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$190.00 – $447.00 (median $255.00) · 30 analysts · as of 2026-07-02
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $926.27 |
| 38.0 |
| 24.40 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $344.09 | 14.4 | 24.15 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $508.41 | 19.3 | 26.40 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $926.27 | 38.0 | 24.40 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $210.46 | 3.4 | 62.60 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $333.53 | 13.7 | 24.40 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $116.96 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $444.67 | 18.2 | 24.40 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $891.72 | 38.0 | 23.49 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $1384.34 | 38.0 | 36.47 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $727.86 | 19.3 | 37.80 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $1140.15 | 38.0 | 30.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $263.27 | 3.4 | 78.31 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $410.55 | 13.7 | 30.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $547.35 | 18.2 | 30.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $1809.59 | 38.0 | 47.67 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $924.55 | 19.3 | 48.01 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1265.78 | 38.0 | 33.34 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $292.29 | 3.4 | 86.94 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $455.79 | 13.7 | 33.34 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $607.66 | 18.2 | 33.34 | Analyst | high |