ADM
Archer Daniels MidlandNYSEConsumer StaplesFarm ProductsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ADM has a composite score of 7.6 with a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects a medium confidence level of 76.0 and is influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions related to labor and inflation. The top drivers affecting the score include macro labor, inflation, rates, and growth. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.01
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.00 → $1.39 (+39.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 9% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -0.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
6 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-03-10ADM — director transitionimpact 0.48
- 2025-01-29ADM — Principal Accounting Officer transitionimpact 0.16
- 2024-11-05ADM — legal / regulatory event — Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Rep…impact 0.15
- 2024-07-10ADM — CFO transitionimpact 0.13
- 2024-11-06ADM — director transitionimpact 0.13
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve adjusted EPS targetgrowthmixed65% progressprovisional
2/3: “ADM now expects 2026 adjusted EPS of approximately $4.15 to $4.70.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. ADM's adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 increased from $3.60-$4.25 to $4.15-$4.70. Despite the upward revision, the financials show a mixed trajectory with net income fluctuating, indicating limited progress towards the higher end of the target.
- 2.Manage capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed35% progressprovisional
2/3: “Capital expenditures continue to be projected to be in the range of $1.3 to $1.5 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. ADM has consistently projected capital expenditures between $1.3 to $1.5 billion for 2026. However, the financials do not provide specific updates on capex execution, indicating persistent statement but limited substantive delivery evidence this quarter.
- 3.Board expansion and leadershiptalentwatchprovisional
3/10: “ADM increased the size of the Board of Directors from 12 to 13 directors.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. ADM expanded its board from 12 to 13 directors, indicating a focus on leadership enhancement. This strategic move aligns with their talent priorities, but financials do not directly reflect the impact of this change yet.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 27%; 252d 27%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −13%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLP) — 0.59 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 55/100, drawdown 74/100, beta 59/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 29.2% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve adjusted EPS target
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04ADM aims to achieve an adjusted EPS of $4.15 to $4.70 for 2026.
On track →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. ADM's adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 increased from $3.60-$4.25 to $4.15-$4.70. Despite the upward revision, the financials show a mixed trajectory with net income fluctuating, indicating limited progress towards the higher end of the target.
ADM expects 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.15 to $4.7065%CEO/CFO:“ADM now expects 2026 adjusted EPS of approximately $4.15 to $4.70.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“ADM now expects 2026 adjusted EPS of approximately $4.15 to $4.70.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“ADM expects 2026 adjusted EPS of approximately $3.60 to $4.25.”
- 2025-Q3Press release
“Revised previously provided adjusted EPS guidance for full-year 2025 to $3.25 - $3.50.”
- #2
Manage capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04ADM plans to manage capital expenditures within the range of $1.3 to $1.5 billion for 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. ADM has consistently projected capital expenditures between $1.3 to $1.5 billion for 2026. However, the financials do not provide specific updates on capex execution, indicating persistent statement but limited substantive delivery evidence this quarter.
35%CEO/CFO:“Capital expenditures continue to be projected to be in the range of $1.3 to $1.5 billion.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“Capital expenditures continue to be projected to be in the range of $1.3 to $1.5 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Capital expenditures are projected to be in the range of $1.3 to $1.5 billion.”
- #3
Board expansion and leadership
TalentNew since 2026-05-04ADM is focused on expanding its board and enhancing leadership capabilities.
WatchNewly stated in 2026-Q1. ADM expanded its board from 12 to 13 directors, indicating a focus on leadership enhancement. This strategic move aligns with their talent priorities, but financials do not directly reflect the impact of this change yet.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“ADM increased the size of the Board of Directors from 12 to 13 directors.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-10Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“ADM increased the size of the Board of Directors from 12 to 13 directors.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADM Archer Daniels Midland | +7.6 | full | moderate |
WMT Walmart | -9.3 | expensive | low |
COST Costco | +3.9 | expensive | moderate |
PG Procter & Gamble | +15 | fair | low |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | +14 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_staples sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+3.4 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-05)-16 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.2 pts
- If consumer_staples sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-054d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) issued a press release announcing first quarter results. A copy of such press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or t…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 60 - 2026-03-101mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 9, 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (the “Company”) increased the size of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company from 12 to 13 directors and elected Michael C. McMurray as an independent director, effective immediately, to fill the vacancy created by the increase in the size of the Board. Mr. McMurray will serve until the…
executive changeneutralscore 14 - 2026-02-033mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) issued a press release announcing fourth quarter and annual results. A copy of such press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933,…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7 - 2025-11-046mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2025, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) issued a press release announcing third quarter results. A copy of such press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended,…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1 - 2025-09-237mo agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On September 23, 2025, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (“ADM”) issued a press release announcing the signing of a definitive agreement to form a North American Animal Feed Joint Venture with Alltech as part of its strategy to transition its animal nutrition business into higher margin specialty ingredients. The joint venture is part of the strategy of ADM’s Animal Nutrition division, which is part of the ADM Nutrition segment, to diversify into higher growth and highe…
mna activitypositivescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.