Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$84.61+0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADM
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $85 ADM trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median — but our blended $95 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $60–$95. Note: our $95 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($60–$95). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $90.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $32.10 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $68.90 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $143.19 | 11.7 | 12.02 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$60.00 – $95.00 (median $84.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-08-05
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 35% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 6.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.76/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $55.02 |
| 15.9 |
| 3.46 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $89.27 | 15.8 | 5.65 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $144.48 | 0.9 | 169.28 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $146.23 | 33.7 | 4.34 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $51.97 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $73.88 | 16.8 | 4.39 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $25.49 | 15.9 | 1.60 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $106.12 | 15.8 | 6.72 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $186.02 | 0.9 | 217.96 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $226.29 | 33.7 | 6.72 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $15.27 | 15.9 | 0.96 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $125.09 | 15.8 | 7.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $219.28 | 0.9 | 256.92 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $266.75 | 33.7 | 7.92 | Analyst | medium |