Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFarm ProductsSnapshot 2026-07-08
$80.28+2.65%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $80.28. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $78 ADM trades at 23× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median, and our $72 fair value agrees. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $58–$95. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $90 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$58.00 – $95.00 (median $87.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 19% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 4.4 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.72/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $87.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $523.49 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $579.68 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $42.98 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $60.31 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $85.19 | 19.3 | 4.42 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $62.79 | 16.9 | 4.81 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $199.02 | 20.1 | 9.90 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $66.03 | 19.3 | 3.43 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $281.63 | 1.7 | 166.50 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $168.79 | 49.2 | 3.43 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $46.92 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $53.84 | 15.7 | 3.43 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $65.33 | 19.3 | 3.39 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $211.27 | 19.3 | 10.97 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $302.68 | 20.1 | 15.06 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $115.64 | 19.3 | 6.01 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $349.53 | 1.7 | 206.64 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $295.58 | 49.2 | 6.01 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $94.28 | 15.7 | 6.01 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $387.08 | 19.3 | 20.11 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $400.30 | 20.1 | 19.92 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $133.14 | 19.3 | 6.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $402.42 | 1.7 | 237.91 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $340.31 | 49.2 | 6.92 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $108.55 | 15.7 | 6.92 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.