Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$84.61+0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADM — director transition
Dated 2026-08-12
Director — Lei Z. Schlitz: A director is resigning due to a change in principal employment, which is a standard governance event with no indication of disagreement or operational disruption.
Why it matters: Stable leadership after the CEO change can boost investor trust and operations.
Watch forNo further executive changes or disruptions in leadership for at least six months.
Also watch forThere are more big executive departures or changes in six months.
Why it matters: Updates on EPS guidance will show how well ADM is managing its growth and costs.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to more than $5.60.
Worry ifManagement lowers 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to less than $5.15.
Why it matters: The Nutrition segment's performance is key for ADM's growth. Clear outlook can help investors.
Watch forADM shares a good update on the Nutrition segment's performance and outlook.
Also watch forADM pulls back guidance or gives a negative outlook for the Nutrition segment.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows ADM's discipline in managing investments.
Supportive ifCapital spending is between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion.
Worry ifCapital spending goes over $1.5 billion or under $1.3 billion.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $283 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,229 loss on $10,000 · 12.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Staying in the $1.3 to $1.5 billion range shows good capital management.
Supportive ifCapital spending reported at or below $1.5 billion for 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is above $1.5 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting the adjusted EPS target shows better financial results. It also shows good management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for 2026 reaches the higher end of the target range of $4.15-$4.70.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for 2026 falls below the lower end of the target range of $4.15.
Why it matters: Updates on capital spending will show ADM's effort to control costs in a weak market.
Worry ifADM reports capital spending for 2026 is between $1.3 and $1.5 billion.
Less concerning ifCapital spending reported is much lower than $1.3 billion.
Why it matters: This earnings report will show ADM's financial health and how it operates.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better financial results than the last quarter.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows a drop in key financial results.
Why it matters: Updates on the SEC investigation will show how it impacts ADM's money and rules.
Watch forADM says the SEC investigation is fully resolved. No more actions are needed.
Also watch forNew findings from the SEC investigation may lead to more penalties or changes.
Why it matters: The CFO's investigation result may change how ADM handles its money.
Watch forThe Board says the investigation is over and no more actions are needed.
Also watch forThe investigation finds serious problems that lead to more actions against ADM.
Why it matters: New leadership may bring new ideas that affect performance.
Supportive ifThe new COO shares specific plans within the first 90 days.
Worry ifNo new plans or ideas are shared in the same time period.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Nutrition will confirm ADM's ability to capture market demand.
Supportive ifNutrition segment operating profit grows year over year by more than 50%.
Worry ifNutrition segment operating profit grows less than 30% year over year.