Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$70.47-0.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ADM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ADM — director transition
Dated 2026-08-12
Director — Lei Z. Schlitz: A director is resigning due to a change in principal employment, which is a standard governance event with no indication of disagreement or operational disruption.
Why it matters: The Nov. 3 report is the next clear test of ADM’s higher 2026 profit range. A cut would signal that the Q2 gains are not holding.
Worry ifOn Nov. 3, ADM keeps its 2026 adjusted EPS range at $5.15–$5.60 or raises it.
Less concerning ifOn Nov. 3, ADM lowers the 2026 adjusted EPS range below $5.15.
Why it matters: ADM has kept this spending range in its outlook. Spending above the top end would mark a break from that plan.
Worry ifADM reports capital spending above $1.5 billion in 2026.
Less concerning ifADM reports 2026 capital spending at or below $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: ADM raised its 2026 profit range after strong second-quarter results. The next report tests whether it can meet that higher range.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS is at least $5.15, within or above the latest $5.15–$5.60 range.
Worry ifADM cuts its 2026 adjusted EPS range below $5.15 or reports full-year adjusted EPS below $5.15.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $294 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,985 loss on $10,000 · 19.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.