Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$70.47-0.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.93 → 5.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ADM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EPS between $4.15 and $4.70 in 2026 | ADM raises its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about $4.15 to $4.70. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EPS falls below $4.15 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ADM is a cyclical agricultural and food business with an earnings thesis tied to execution and sector conditions. The thesis is currently weakened, despite a recent shift to a favorable signal, because recent financial performance has slipped relative to its industry.
The valuation is described as justified, with a modest premium versus peers and expectations broadly aligned with the evidence. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the market appears to expect somewhat more than the model does; the evidence does not point to a strongly stretched valuation setup.
Near term, adjusted EPS rose from $0.71 in the first quarter to $1.84 in the second, and 2026 guidance was raised, supporting management’s stated earnings priority. Cost savings also appear to be progressing, while capital spending remains within guidance but execution is mixed; earnings quality is still fragile, and the risk of a near-term miss is assessed as low. Over the multi-year view, results hinge on sustaining that execution amid a supportive sector backdrop.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while further weakening in jobs data could increase recession concerns for cyclical businesses. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers such as TSN, BG, and CALM would support the sector backdrop. The main swing factor is whether ADM can keep delivering its 2026 earnings plan without weakening earnings quality.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ADM’s thesis rests on execution that has recently improved, but the weakened thesis state and fragile earnings quality call for attention to guidance and sector signals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Capital spending is planned between $1.3 and $1.5 billion, supporting steady operations and growth. |
| Intact |
| Capital expenditures exceed $1.5 billion or fall below $1.3 billion in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $272M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Between 1.3 and 1.5 billion USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026272,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Total third quarter segment operating profit 1 was $1.4 billion, compared to the prior year quarter of $845 million.” “This excludes net specified item charges of $36 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Sustain revenue growth near 7% per year | A primary condition in Archer Daniels Midland's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below 5% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.46 → $5.87 · observed estimates
$88.64B → $91.90B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.46 | $88,643,060,980 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.46 | $88,643,060,980 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.46 | $88,643,060,980 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.46 | $88,643,060,980 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.46 | $88,643,060,980 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.47 | $88,643,060,980 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.47 | $88,643,060,980 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.61 | $89,716,581,305 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.47 | $88,643,060,980 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.47 | $88,643,060,980 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.47 | $88,643,060,980 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.47 | $88,643,060,980 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.48 | $88,643,060,980 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.47 | $88,643,060,980 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.83 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.68 | $89,799,322,520 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.68 | $89,799,322,520 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.68 | $89,799,322,520 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.68 | $89,799,322,520 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.83 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.68 | $89,799,322,520 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.83 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.83 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.83 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.83 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.83 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.83 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.79 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.79 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.79 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.79 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.79 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.79 | $91,276,437,711 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.79 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.79 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.79 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.82 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.82 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.82 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.82 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.82 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.82 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.82 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.82 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.82 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.82 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.82 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.82 | $91,538,387,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.92 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.85 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.85 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.85 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.85 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.85 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.85 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.85 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.85 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.85 | $92,299,887,118 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.85 | $92,299,887,118 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.93 | $92,299,887,118 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.93 | $92,299,887,118 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.93 | $92,299,887,118 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.93 | $92,299,887,118 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.89 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.89 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.89 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.89 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.89 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.89 | $92,299,887,118 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.86 | $93,072,311,723 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.86 | $93,072,311,723 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.87 | $93,072,311,723 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.85 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.85 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.85 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.86 | $93,187,678,389 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.87 | $91,900,423,363 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.