Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$84.61+0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve adjusted EPS between $4.15 and $4.70 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $5.15-$5.60 vs target $4.15-$4.70.
ADM raises its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about $4.15 to $4.70. The company beat EPS estimates in 4 of the last 5 quarters, showing stable profit margins. Capital spending is planned between $1.3 and $1.5 billion, supporting steady operations and growth.
ADM faces pressure from a soft guidance posture and a recent earnings miss. Revenue growth is modest at about 1% year-over-year recently. The stock trades at a premium to peers, which may limit upside if growth slows.
The market expects about 7% revenue growth and prices ADM roughly 9% above our model's valuation level. Our valuation is about 19% below the median analyst price, indicating some disagreement with the Street's more optimistic outlook.
Breaks if: Adjusted EPS falls below $4.15 in FY26
Focus on achieving the adjusted EPS target for 2026, with guidance set between $4.15 and $4.70.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable, multi-year view on a company in the Consumer Staples sector. ADM is navigating through a challenging sector backdrop while focusing on operational improvements and cost savings.
The current valuation shows a neutral stance, with expectations slightly below what the market has priced in. ADM is trading at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that some positive performance is already anticipated.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management focused on achieving their adjusted earnings per share target for 2026. Recent financial performance has shown strong growth, but there is a slight decline in momentum that warrants attention.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on their priorities. Key external factors include inflation trends and the performance of sector peers, which could influence ADM's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The board resignation raises concerns about governance. This change threatens leadership stability. Recent financial performance remains steady, but it slipped notably this past month.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures exceed $1.5 billion or fall below $1.3 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 5% YoY next year
Overall, ADM is positioned in a mixed environment with stable management execution. The next few quarters will be crucial for assessing its long-term outlook. Not investment advice.