Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
American International Group (AIG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$80.93-0.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.82 → 8.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AIG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.50 and return $760 million capital per quarter | The company returns capital with $0.50 quarterly dividends and $760 million in buybacks and dividends each quarter. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.50 or capital returned falls below $700 million in any quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AIG is a mature insurance business with a capital-return and underwriting-discipline thesis, rather than a high-growth story. The multi-year view is on watch: key operating priorities are on track, but recent financial performance trails its industry cohort and earnings quality is fragile.
The valuation evidence points to AIG being cheap versus peers, with a neutral value assessment and a recent decline in the valuation score. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment says the current setup is justified, with low fragility rather than a broad mix of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near term, General Insurance premiums and underwriting income have grown, while combined ratios have improved modestly. Capital returns have also continued, but recent financial performance is weak, the CEO transition adds uncertainty, and a prior deep earnings miss plus recent peer misses remain risks despite low stated miss probability.
The multi-year thesis depends on AIG sustaining profitable General Insurance growth and improving underwriting discipline while keeping capital management consistent. Near term, a guidance cut or falling rates would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AIG has evidence of operating progress and disciplined capital returns, but fragile earnings quality, weaker relative performance, and management transition risks keep the thesis under watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| AIG grows revenue about 12% a year and earns over $8 per share in 2026. |
| Improving |
| EPS falls below $7.09 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.60 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=8.03 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261.6 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful CEO transition and strategic investments execution | Strategic investments in Convex Group and Onex support future growth. | Intact | Material negative news on CEO transition or failed strategic investments | Qualitative: Orderly succession confirmed Orderly executive succession, Q3 earnings beat, and disciplined capital allocation confirm smooth management execution. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 12% annually | A primary condition in American International Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 17.19% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202617.194143 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.84 → $8.83 · observed estimates
$31.33B → $31.41B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.86 | $31,860,978,963 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.84 | $31,325,895,970 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $8.82 | $31,282,088,970 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.81 | $31,309,922,300 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.81 | $31,309,922,300 | 22 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.86 | $31,860,978,963 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.86 | $31,860,978,963 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.86 | $31,860,978,963 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.86 | $31,860,978,963 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.86 | $31,860,978,963 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.86 | $31,860,978,963 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.86 | $31,860,978,963 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.80 | $31,412,468,836 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.82 | $31,427,759,336 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.82 | $31,427,759,336 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.82 | $31,427,759,336 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.82 | $31,427,759,336 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.81 | $31,436,234,425 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.81 | $31,436,234,425 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.80 | $31,410,791,305 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.81 | $31,410,791,305 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.81 | $31,410,791,305 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.81 | $31,388,174,638 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.81 | $31,388,174,638 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.82 | $31,412,939,121 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.83 | $31,412,939,121 | 12 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.