American International Group (AIG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$76.21-0.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AIG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AIG — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-02
Executive Chair — Peter Zaffino: The Executive Chair is stepping down to a Senior Advisor role with a named successor (John Rice) as Chair, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: His experience may affect AIG's plans and how well it operates.
Watch forTom Stoddard announces new plans or changes that improve AIG's operations.
Also watch forNo new plans or changes are announced. This suggests sticking with current strategies.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company plans and results. Investors want to see stability and clear direction.
Watch forAnalysts or management share positive views on how well the transition is going.
Also watch forThere are concerns about how the transition will impact company results.
Why it matters: AIG has a strong track record of increasing dividends. Continued increases signal confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifAIG says it will raise its dividend by at least 10% after Q2 earnings.
Worry ifNo dividend increase is announced after Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows trust in cash flow and financial health.
Supportive ifDividend payout remains at $0.50 per share.
Worry ifDividend payout is reduced below $0.50 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $234 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,698 loss on $10,000 · 17.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop in investment income may show problems in the investment portfolio or market.
Worry ifNet investment income falls below $1 billion.
Less concerning ifNet investment income stays above $1 billion.
Why it matters: Changes may impact AIG's ability to give money back to shareholders. They may also affect how AIG manages risks.
Watch forAIG announces a new plan that improves returns for shareholders.
Also watch forAIG reports a drop in capital returns or a less favorable strategy.
Why it matters: Updates on these investments can show how they affect AIG's growth and profits.
Watch forManagement shares good news about earnings from Convex Group.
Also watch forManagement talks about problems with getting benefits from Convex Group. There are delays.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows confidence in financial health. This can make investors feel better.
Supportive ifAIG declares a dividend higher than $0.50 per share.
Worry ifAIG maintains or lowers the dividend at $0.50 per share.
Why it matters: The new CEO's direction will influence AIG's future growth and operational focus.
Watch forNew strategic initiatives were announced. They match AIG's growth priorities.
Also watch forNo new plans or delays in strategy may mean instability.
Why it matters: A drop in ROE may show weaker profits and less effective management.
Worry ifReturn on equity falls below 8%.
Less concerning ifReturn on equity remains above 8%.
Why it matters: The dividend increase shows AIG's confidence and good financial health. This affects investor feelings.
Supportive ifThe dividend declared is $0.50 per share or more. This confirms strong capital management.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut or stays the same. This signals possible financial weakness.
Why it matters: Investment income is key for AIG's profits. Changes can affect overall results.
Worry ifNet investment income is over $712 million. This shows strong investment performance.
Less concerning ifNet investment income drops below $600 million. This suggests investment challenges.
Why it matters: Net investment income affects overall profit. A drop may show problems in investment performance.
Worry ifNet investment income decreases year over year by more than 20%.
Less concerning ifNet investment income increases or stays stable year over year.
Why it matters: AIG is growing its net premiums written. This shows it can attract more business.
Supportive ifQ3 net premiums written growth exceeds 9% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 net premiums written growth falls below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The combined ratio shows how well AIG is doing. A lower ratio means more profit.
Worry ifThe combined ratio drops below 89% in Q3.
Less concerning ifCombined ratio worsens above 90% in Q3.
Why it matters: Investments in Convex Group and Onex Corporation could boost AIG's earnings. This shows the effectiveness of their strategy.
Watch forThe earnings report shows strong results from Convex Group and Onex Corporation.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows no clear impact from these investments.