Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$77.84-9.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.76 → 6.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AKAM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt and capital allocation prudently | A supporting condition in Akamai Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain manageable debt levels and fund cloud expansion efficiently. | Under Pressure | Debt servicing or capital costs materially impair cash flow or margins | Margin target 25-26% under threat; no specific debt metric reported Analyst cuts cite margin and capital concerns; Anthropic deal adds $11.6B revenue but warrants/note issuance raise capital allocation questions. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a mature technology business with a growth opportunity in cloud infrastructure and security, rather than a pure high-growth story. The multi-year view is intact, though the recent signal shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and risk is elevated.
Valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also indicates a 48% premium versus peers, so the relative valuation picture is mixed. Expectations appear below the model’s baseline, but confidence in that comparison is medium and the evidence does not show a high level of valuation fragility.
Near term, recent earnings misses and a 27% estimated miss probability create execution risk. Over the multi-year view, cloud infrastructure revenue grew 39% year over year and security revenue grew 10%, while total revenue rose 5%; margins have compressed from 30% to 25%, with full-year guidance at 25% to 26%.
The thesis depends on continued cloud infrastructure and security growth, alongside management’s ability to protect margins as it invests. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while easier interest rates or stabilization among major technology companies could improve the sector backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year view remains intact, but it is mixed: strong cloud infrastructure growth supports the business case, while misses and margin compression make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth in Cloud Infrastructure Services revenue | Akamai grows revenue about 7% yearly, driven by cloud services. | Intact | Cloud Infrastructure Services revenue growth falls below 30% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Year-to-date, we have signed numerous customers to multi-year CIS contracts, collectively worth over $2.8 billion.” “This includes a contract with a U.S.-based technology company, which is also a new customer, worth more than $600 million over four years.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Non-GAAP operating margin near 29% | A primary condition in Akamai Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain non-GAAP operating margin around 29%. | Broken | Operating margin falls below 25% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “– August 6, 2026 – Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM), the cybersecurity and cloud computing company that powers and protects business online, today reported financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026.” “– August 6, 2026 – Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM), the cybersecurity and cloud computing company that powers and protects business online, today reported financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026.” Diluted EPS was $0.52 in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Total revenue growth near 7% annually | A primary condition in Akamai Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 5.38% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20265.384602 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Akamai delivered a strong second quarter, highlighted by sustained momentum across our security and Cloud Infrastructure Services (CIS) portfolios,” said Dr. Tom Leighton, Akamai's Chief Executive Officer.” “– August 6, 2026 – Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM), the cybersecurity and cloud computing company that powers and protects business online, today reported financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026.” Revenue was $1.100 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.23 → $6.73 · observed estimates
$4.99B → $5.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.23 | $4,988,246,730 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.23 | $4,988,246,730 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.23 | $4,988,246,730 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.16 | $4,992,332,670 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.23 | $4,988,246,730 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.23 | $4,987,587,760 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.23 | $4,987,587,760 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.23 | $4,988,168,010 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.23 | $4,988,168,010 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.20 | $4,991,004,550 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.20 | $4,991,004,550 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.20 | $4,991,004,550 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.20 | $4,990,840,550 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.20 | $4,990,840,550 | 25 / 25 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.12 | $4,995,290,197 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.20 | $5,005,511,120 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.20 | $5,005,511,120 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.20 | $5,005,511,120 | 24 / 24 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.12 | $4,995,290,197 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.16 | $5,071,835,330 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.16 | $5,071,835,330 | 25 / 24 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.12 | $4,995,290,197 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.12 | $4,995,290,197 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.12 | $4,995,290,197 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.12 | $4,995,290,197 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.12 | $4,995,290,197 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.12 | $4,995,290,197 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.12 | $4,995,290,197 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.12 | $5,066,778,277 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.12 | $5,066,778,277 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.12 | $5,066,778,277 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.12 | $5,066,778,277 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.13 | $5,066,759,104 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.13 | $5,066,759,104 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.13 | $5,066,759,104 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.13 | $5,066,759,104 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.13 | $5,066,759,104 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.13 | $5,066,759,104 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.13 | $5,066,759,104 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.14 | $5,072,066,958 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.17 | $5,071,930,595 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.17 | $5,071,930,595 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.17 | $5,071,930,595 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.15 | $5,073,784,204 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.77 | $5,196,320,618 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.77 | $5,196,320,618 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.77 | $5,196,320,618 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.74 | $5,206,103,227 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.76 | $5,221,671,846 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.76 | $5,221,654,333 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.76 | $5,221,654,324 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.76 | $5,221,654,324 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.76 | $5,221,654,324 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.76 | $5,221,654,324 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.76 | $5,221,654,322 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.76 | $5,221,654,322 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.76 | $5,221,654,322 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.76 | $5,221,654,322 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.76 | $5,219,172,436 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.76 | $5,219,172,436 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.74 | $5,219,172,436 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.74 | $5,208,672,436 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.74 | $5,208,672,436 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.74 | $5,208,672,436 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.74 | $5,208,672,436 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.74 | $5,208,672,436 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.74 | $5,208,673,255 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.74 | $5,208,673,255 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.74 | $5,208,673,255 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.74 | $5,208,673,255 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.74 | $5,208,650,525 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.74 | $5,208,650,525 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.74 | $5,208,650,525 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.74 | $5,208,650,525 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.74 | $5,208,650,525 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.74 | $5,208,650,525 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.74 | $5,208,650,525 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.74 | $5,208,650,525 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.74 | $5,208,650,525 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.74 | $5,209,114,162 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.74 | $5,209,114,162 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.74 | $5,209,114,162 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.74 | $5,209,114,162 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.73 | $5,218,134,442 | 16 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.