Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$77.84-9.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AKAM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AKAM — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-24
of Form 8-K because the Anthropic MSA is no longer immaterial in amount or significance to the Company. The Company may terminate the Anthropic MSA upon an uncured breach by Anthropic. Anthropic may terminate the Anthropic MSA upon a material uncured breach by the Company or upon a change of control of the Company in favor of a direct competitor of Anthropic. Either party may terminate the Anthropic MSA if the other party becomes the subject of a bankruptcy, insolvency, receivership or simila…
Why it matters: Akamai guided to $1.105 billion to $1.130 billion for Q3. A miss would break its near-term revenue plan.
Worry ifOn November 5, reported Q3 revenue is below $1.105 billion, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifReported Q3 revenue is at least $1.105 billion and within or above guidance.
Why it matters: The deal is large, but Akamai says it will not change 2026 revenue guidance. Delivery and profit growth will show whether the deal adds value.
Watch forAkamai reports revenue from Anthropic services and keeps 2026 revenue at or above its $4.445 billion low end. It gives a clear plan for the $5.5 billion deal capex.
Also watch forAkamai cuts 2026 revenue below $4.445 billion, or reports higher deal costs without a clear rise in service revenue.
Why it matters: CIS grew 39% in Q2 and is a key growth area. A slower pace would test the value of new cloud deals.
Watch forQ3 CIS revenue is at least 39% above the prior-year quarter, exceeding about $138 million from the Q2 base.
Also watch forQ3 CIS revenue grows less than 39% year over year, or falls below its Q2 level of $99 million.
Why it matters: Delivery revenue fell 6% in Q2. A return to growth would ease pressure on total revenue; another drop would deepen it.
Watch forQ3 Delivery and other cloud applications revenue is higher than in the same quarter last year.
Also watch forQ3 Delivery and other cloud applications revenue is down 6% or more year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $571 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,667 loss on $10,000 · 46.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Akamai reported a 25% margin in Q2 and guided to 24% to 26% for Q3. A result below that range would show more pressure.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP operating margin is below 24%, the low end of Akamai's guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP operating margin is at least 24%, within or above the guided range.