Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$105.22-1.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AKAM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 12.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AKAM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 6, 2026, Akamai Technologies, Inc. announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information provided under this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act") or…
Why it matters: The CEO change is important for future plans and leadership stability. Updates can affect how investors feel.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan and timeline for the CEO change.
Also watch forThere is no clear communication about the CEO change.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how revenue grows and margins stay stable. These are key for management.
Watch forQ2 revenue growth exceeds 7% year over year, indicating strong performance.
Also watch forQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year, suggesting potential issues.
Why it matters: A margin below this level may show problems with costs and profits.
Worry ifThe operating margin is below 24%. This is based on non-GAAP measures.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating margin stays at or above 24%.
Why it matters: Keeping margins is important for Akamai's profits. A drop below guidance shows problems.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating margin stays at or above 25% in Q3.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating margin drops below 24% in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$221 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $504 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,478 loss on $10,000 · 34.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This is a key test of Akamai's ability to maintain its revenue growth trend. Meeting this target shows continued demand for its services.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $1.075 billion.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $1.075 billion.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show management believes in the company's value and future growth.
Supportive ifAkamai announces or does a share buyback of at least $350 million.
Worry ifNo share buyback is announced or done. This may show worries about cash flow.
Why it matters: Growth in Cloud Infrastructure Services is important for Akamai. Good performance helps their AI plans.
Supportive ifCloud Infrastructure Services revenue grows more than 30% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifCloud Infrastructure Services revenue growth falls below 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: If guidance is below this level, it shows Akamai's growth is slowing.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is set below $1.105 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $1.105 billion.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may signal weakening demand in key segments.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth prints below 5% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: New contracts would show strong demand for Akamai's Cloud Services.
Supportive ifNew long-term contracts worth over $600 million will be announced.
Worry ifNo new significant contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More repurchases may show trust in the company's financial health.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $350 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $350 million.