Align Technology (ALGN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$185.22-1.68%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track ALGN free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Align grows sales about 3% to 4% yearly. Profit margin should rise near 18%. The company buys back $200 million in stock. It invests $125 million to $150 million in new equipment.
Sales growth could slow below 3%. Profit margins might stay near 14%. Stock buybacks could stop. Capital spending may fall short.
The price is about 7% above our fair value near $176. Analysts expect 4% revenue growth. Our view aligns with these expectations.
Breaks if: stock buyback program is halted or materially reduced
Execute $200 million open market stock repurchase program approved in April 2025, funded with cash on hand and expected to complete by October 2026.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management announced a $200 million stock repurchase program in 2025-Q2 and executed repurchases totaling $465.9 million in 2025, exceeding the announced amount. The program is funded with cash on hand and expected to complete by October 2026. The trajectory shows active execution beyond the initial target.
“Planning to repurchase $200.0 million of Align’s common stock through open market repurchases under the $1.0 billion stock repurchase program.”
“Repurchased approximately 0.7 million shares pursuant to the $200 million open market repurchase plan announced in August 2025.”
“Repurchased approximately 0.5 million shares pursuant to the $200 million open market repurchase plan announced on August 5, 2025.”
“Announced intention to repurchase $200 million of common stock through open market repurchases under the $1.0 billion stock repurchase program approved in April 2025.”
Breaks if: capital spending falls below $125 million in FY26
Plan capital expenditures of $125 million to $150 million in fiscal 2026, focusing on technology upgrades and manufacturing capacity expansion.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures were approximately $100 million in 2025. Management plans to increase investments to $125 million to $150 million in 2026, focusing on technology upgrades and manufacturing capacity. The trajectory shows planned increased capital investment.
“We expect our investments in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 to be $125 million to $150 million.”
“We expect our investments in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 to be $125 million to $150 million.”
“We expect our investments in capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 to be $125 million to $150 million.”
Breaks if: operating margin falls below 14% in FY26
Target GAAP operating margin slightly below 18% in 2026, approximately 400 basis points improvement over 2025, with non-GAAP operating margin around 23.7%.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Fiscal 2025 GAAP operating margin was approximately 13.7%, down from 15.2% in 2024. Management expects 2026 GAAP operating margin to improve by about 400 basis points to slightly below 18%. The trajectory shows management targeting margin improvement after a decline in 2025.
“We expect 2026 GAAP operating margin to be slightly below 18.0%, approximately 400 basis points improvement over 2025.”
“We expect the fiscal 2025 GAAP operating margin to be around 13.6% to 13.8%.”
“We expect the fiscal 2025 GAAP operating margin to be 13% - 14%, down year-over-year.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26
Continue to grow worldwide revenue by 3% to 4% year-over-year in fiscal 2026, driven by Clear Aligner volume growth and Systems and Services revenues.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Fiscal 2025 revenue was $4.035 billion, up 0.9% year-over-year. Management reaffirmed 2026 revenue growth guidance of 3% to 4% year-over-year in multiple disclosures. The trajectory is consistent with management's stated growth target.
“We expect 2026 worldwide revenue growth to be up 3% to 4% year-over-year.”
“We expect 2026 worldwide revenue growth to be up 3% to 4% year-over-year.”
“We expect 2026 worldwide revenue growth to be up 3% to 4% year-over-year.”