Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-26 · fmp
$24.58 → $24.64 · observed estimates
Applied Materials (AMAT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$369.40-3.28%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AMAT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Invest $500 million to expand system manufacturing and R&D | The company invests $500 million to expand manufacturing and R&D capacity. | Intact | Investment plans materially reduced or delayed in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-26 · fmp
$24.58 → $24.64 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a semiconductor equipment growth business with a multi-year thesis built on expanding demand and capacity. The thesis is currently intact, though recent momentum has weakened and risk remains high.
The evidence labels valuation as stretched and flags expensive valuation alongside weak execution quality, even though its valuation divergence is described as cheap versus peers. Model confidence is low, so the expectations gap is uncertain; the market appears to recognize growth potential while leaving limited comfort around execution.
Recent financial performance is strong: revenue rose from $7.01B in 2026-Q1 to $9.12B in 2026-Q3, while Semiconductor Systems revenue grew 37%. Management is on track with its 2026 growth goal and capacity expansion, but momentum fell sharply, and earnings quality is fragile despite recent earnings beats.
Near term, a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while the stated miss probability is low. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on sustaining equipment growth and capacity execution; rate cuts or steadier results from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AMAT has strong operating growth and an intact thesis, but high risk, weaker momentum, and stretched valuation make execution the central swing factor. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Applied Materials's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $3.16 next quarter (2026-07-31). |
| Intact |
| EPS guidance falls below $3.16 next quarter |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow semiconductor equipment business by 20% in 2026 | Applied Materials aims to grow its semiconductor equipment business by 20% in 2026. | Improving | YoY semiconductor equipment revenue growth falls below ~7% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““As the rapid global adoption of AI drives unprecedented demand for our materials engineering solutions, we are further raising our Semiconductor Systems revenue expectations for calendar 2026 and are confident we will grow faster than the market this year.” ““Applied Materials delivered record quarterly performance, and we now expect our semiconductor equipment business to grow more than 30 percent in calendar 2026,” said Gary Dickerson, President and CEO.” Revenue was $9.115 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$57.10B → $57.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | $24.58 | $57,102,004,841 | 16 / 23 |
| 2026-10-28 | $24.59 | $57,102,004,841 | 16 / 23 |
| 2026-10-29 | $24.59 | $57,102,004,841 | 16 / 23 |
| 2026-10-30 | $24.59 | $57,102,004,841 | 16 / 23 |
| 2026-10-31 | $24.59 | $57,102,004,841 | 16 / 23 |
| 2026-11-01 | $24.59 | $57,099,004,639 | 16 / 23 |
| 2026-11-02 | $24.59 | $57,099,004,639 | 16 / 23 |
| 2026-11-03 | $24.64 | $57,181,448,692 | 16 / 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | $24.64 | $57,181,448,692 | 16 / 24 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 35 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.