NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-07-08
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $570.50. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $554 AMAT trades at 56× p/e, below its 66× p/e peer median, but our blended $254 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range and it trades at 2.1× its own p/e history. Analysts target $480–$900. Note: our $254 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($480–$900). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $705 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $540.00 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $66.19 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $66.64 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $81.60 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$480.00 – $900.00 (median $540.00) · 35 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 428% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 7.7 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $8.12/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $295.81 |
| 66.5 |
| 4.45 |
| Mgmt |
| medium |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $495.66 | 42.9 | 11.56 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $421.93 | 63.1 | 6.68 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $295.81 | 66.5 | 4.45 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $227.23 | 6.3 | 36.33 | TTM | medium |
| PEG | 12M | $87.36 | 19.6 | 4.45 | TTM | medium |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $116.49 | 26.2 | 4.45 | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $670.13 | 66.5 | 10.08 | Triangulated | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $938.29 | 66.5 | 14.11 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $381.12 | 63.1 | 6.04 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $439.81 | 66.5 | 6.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $132.74 | 6.3 | 21.22 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $129.88 | 19.6 | 6.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $173.20 | 26.2 | 6.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $2025.58 | 66.5 | 30.47 | Mgmt(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $356.13 | 63.1 | 5.64 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $155.81 | 66.5 | 2.34 | Analyst | low |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $61.36 | 26.2 | 2.34 | Analyst | low |
