Applied Materials (AMAT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$454.71+4.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 59.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 43.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AMAT — director transition
Dated 2026-08-27
Director — Akash Palkhiwala: The filing discloses the standard election of a new director to the board and audit committee, which is a routine governance event rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may show problems and affect future growth plans.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was over $500 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations was under $500 million.
Why it matters: If revenue guidance is below $8.95 billion, it may show weak demand in semiconductors.
Worry ifManagement expects Q3 revenue to be less than $8.95 billion.
Less concerning ifManagement gives Q3 revenue guidance of $8.95 billion or more.
Why it matters: Maintaining gross margin above 50% would indicate strong pricing power and cost control.
Supportive ifQ4 gross margin reported above 50%.
Worry ifQ4 gross margin is below 48%. This suggests cost pressures.
Why it matters: Growth over 30% would show management's trust in AI demand for their products.
Supportive ifThe semiconductor equipment growth rate is above 30% for 2026.
Worry ifGrowth rate reported below 20% for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$306 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $591 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,971 loss on $10,000 · 39.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New partnerships show a promise for better semiconductor technology. They also help lead the market.
Supportive ifWe expect at least two new EPIC Center partnerships. These will be with major chipmakers or universities.
Worry ifIf no new partnerships are announced next quarter, it may show stagnation.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level suggest lower profits. This goes against growth expectations.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP EPS reported above $3.16, supporting strong earnings growth.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP EPS was below $3.16. This shows possible profit issues.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means improved efficiency. It also shows better financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $1 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $800 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If they exceed this guidance, it shows strong demand for semiconductor equipment due to AI.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue guidance is above $10.25 billion. This shows strong demand continues.
Worry ifQ4 revenue guidance is below $9.75 billion. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: The settlement may impact cash reserves and future growth investments.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains strong despite the settlement.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations dropped a lot after the settlement.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may mean rising costs or competition hurting profits.
Worry ifA gross margin below 50% in any quarter shows margin pressures.
Less concerning ifGross margin stays above 50%. This shows profits are being sustained.
Why it matters: A big drop in free cash flow could show operational problems or lower profits.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $210 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported above $210 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth above this level shows strong market demand and success in operations.
Supportive ifSemiconductor Systems revenue is growing more than 30% each year.
Worry ifGrowth falls below 20% year over year, indicating potential market share loss.