Applied Materials (AMAT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$319.25-13.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AMAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 66.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 48.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 50 industry peers
AMAT — director transition
Dated 2026-08-27
Director — Akash Palkhiwala: The filing discloses the standard election of a new director to the board and audit committee, which is a routine governance event rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Management named DRAM and advanced packaging as key sources of second-half growth. Slower results would test that view.
Watch forQ4 results show higher revenue in DRAM and advanced packaging than in Q3.
Also watch forQ4 results show DRAM or advanced packaging revenue below Q3 levels.
Why it matters: The momentum score fell by 24.5 points. Another sharp drop would conflict with strong sales growth.
Worry ifThe next company update shows a momentum score below 21.8.
Less concerning ifThe next company update shows a score at or above 21.8.
Why it matters: The purchase would deepen Applied's work with Besi on bonding and chip links. A delay could slow the deal.
Watch forApplied reports that the waiting period under the HSR Act has ended and the shares have been delivered.
Also watch forApplied reports that the HSR waiting period remains open, or that the share purchase will not close.
Why it matters: This tests management's call for strong second-half growth. A miss could weaken the growth case.
Watch forOn the November 12 earnings report, Q4 revenue is at or above $10.25B, the midpoint of the outlook.
Also watch forQ4 revenue is below $9.75B, the low end of the outlook range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$232 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $676 loss on $10,000 · 6.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,584 loss on $10,000 · 55.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.