Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AutoNation (AN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$188.12+2.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
24.77 → 23.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
cash from operations improvement | Cash from operations improved from -$52.5M to $22.2M. | Intact | cash from operations falls below $0 next quarter | Cash from operations: $209.3M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $22.2M cash from operations next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 2026209,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a value-oriented auto retailer with potential for growth from service operations and customer financing. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent results show uneven execution and the evidence confidence is medium.
The valuation evidence describes AN as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment says current fragility is justified rather than extreme. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, while the valuation measure recently rose; the evidence does not explain that change further.
Near term, a recent earnings miss and fragile earnings quality leave guidance and execution as key watch points, though the assessed miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, service revenue and gross profit have grown, while AutoNation Finance income and its portfolio have expanded; revenue was relatively flat year over year.
A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative because estimates may then be reduced. Sector conditions also matter: continued strong results from CVNA, PAG, and KMX could support the broader backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued progress in service and finance despite fragile earnings quality, flat revenue, and sector-sensitive risks. The thesis remains intact, but execution is not yet settled. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| AutoNation is growing earnings per share. |
| Improving |
| EPS falls below $5.00 next quarter |
Diluted EPS: $4.87 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.85 EPS next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20264.87 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
gross profit near $1.21B | The company keeps gross profit stable near $1.21B. | Broken | gross profit falls below $1.15B next quarter | Gross profit: $1.208B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.21B gross profit next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20261,207,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$24.39 → $23.30 · observed estimates
$28.77B → $28.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $24.39 | $28,770,566,610 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $24.39 | $28,770,566,610 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $24.39 | $28,770,566,610 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $24.39 | $28,770,566,610 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $24.39 | $28,770,566,610 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $24.39 | $28,770,566,610 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $24.39 | $28,770,566,610 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $24.39 | $28,770,566,610 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $24.39 | $28,770,566,610 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $24.39 | $28,757,157,520 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $24.39 | $28,757,157,520 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $24.39 | $28,757,157,520 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $24.80 | $28,709,489,890 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $24.80 | $28,709,489,890 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $24.48 | $28,710,133,790 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $24.66 | $28,720,751,880 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $24.66 | $28,720,751,880 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $24.66 | $28,720,751,880 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $24.72 | $28,719,026,880 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $24.73 | $28,719,026,880 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $24.73 | $28,719,026,880 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $24.48 | $28,710,133,790 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $24.48 | $28,710,133,790 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $24.48 | $28,710,133,790 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $24.48 | $28,710,133,790 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $24.48 | $28,710,133,790 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $24.48 | $28,710,133,790 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $24.48 | $28,710,133,790 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $24.73 | $28,662,569,989 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $24.93 | $28,667,986,988 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $24.93 | $28,667,986,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $24.93 | $28,667,986,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $24.93 | $28,667,986,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $24.93 | $28,667,986,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $24.93 | $28,667,986,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $24.93 | $28,667,986,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $24.93 | $28,667,986,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $24.93 | $28,667,986,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $24.77 | $28,627,916,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $24.77 | $28,627,916,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $24.77 | $28,627,916,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $24.77 | $28,627,916,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $24.77 | $28,627,916,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $24.77 | $28,627,916,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $24.77 | $28,627,916,988 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $24.60 | $28,588,431,406 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $24.60 | $28,588,431,406 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $24.12 | $28,536,985,094 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $24.12 | $28,536,985,094 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $24.12 | $28,536,985,094 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $24.01 | $28,518,871,094 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $24.01 | $28,518,871,094 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $23.84 | $28,464,771,094 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $23.84 | $28,464,771,094 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $23.84 | $28,464,771,094 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $23.60 | $28,362,987,870 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $23.60 | $28,362,987,870 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $23.52 | $28,319,505,090 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $23.46 | $28,269,083,170 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $23.46 | $28,269,083,170 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $23.46 | $28,256,883,170 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $23.46 | $28,256,883,170 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $23.30 | $28,280,982,363 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.