AutoNation (AN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$188.12+2.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 30, 2026, AutoNation, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exch…
Why it matters: Same-store new and used vehicle sales both fell in Q3. Smaller declines would show that the drop is easing.
Supportive ifNext quarter, same-store new vehicle sales fall less than 5% from a year earlier. Used vehicle sales fall less than 6%.
Worry ifIn the next quarter, same-store new vehicle sales fall 5% or more, or used vehicle sales fall 6% or more.
Why it matters: AutoNation's Q3 vehicle sales fell year over year. A weaker retail sales report could add pressure to consumer demand.
Worry ifThe November 17 retail sales report shows a month-over-month decline in U.S. retail sales.
Less concerning ifThe November 17 report shows month-over-month growth in U.S. retail sales.
Why it matters: After-Sales adds repeat business as vehicle sales weaken. More growth would support earnings from service work.
Supportive ifNext-quarter parts and service gross profit tops $616.6 million and grows year over year.
Worry ifNext-quarter parts and service gross profit falls below the year-ago level.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $370 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,347 loss on $10,000 · 33.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.