AutoNation (AN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$212.36+2.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers
AN — officer change
Dated 2026-04-29
Approval and adoption of a new equity and incentive plan.
Why it matters: Slower growth in After-Sales profit may mean trouble keeping profits high.
Worry ifAfter-Sales gross profit per unit grows less than 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifAfter-Sales gross profit per unit grows more than 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable gross profit shows good cost control. It shows that management wants to keep profits steady.
Watch forGross profit remains around $1.21 billion in Q2 2026.
Also watch forGross profit drops below $1.20 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A decline would make it harder for AutoNation to stay profitable.
Worry ifGross profit reported below $1.2 billion.
Less concerning ifGross profit remains at or above $1.2 billion.
Why it matters: If profits drop more than -5%, it shows core operations are doing worse. This can hurt overall financial health.
Worry ifSame-store gross profit declines more than -5% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifSame-store gross profit declines less than -5% year over year in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$122 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $297 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,139 loss on $10,000 · 21.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable or rising gross profit margins show good cost control and pricing.
Watch forGross profit margins improve compared to the 18.5% reported for Q1 2026.
Also watch forGross profit margins drop below 18.5%. This shows possible cost issues.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps with ongoing investments and returns to shareholders.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $100 million in a quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations stays below $100 million in a quarter.
Why it matters: More acquisitions would signal growth and expansion in key markets.
Supportive ifThey announced new dealership buys worth over $600 million in revenue.
Worry ifNo new dealership buys were announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Stable sales would show that consumer demand is recovering. This helps revenue grow.
Supportive ifSame-store new vehicle sales are over 56,000 units in Q2.
Worry ifSame-store new vehicle sales fall below 56,000 units in Q2.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would indicate cash flow issues. This could raise concerns about financial stability.
Worry ifQ3 cash from operations is less than $50 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash from operations is $50 million or more.
Why it matters: Growth in the finance portfolio shows strong demand for loans and can boost profits.
Supportive ifAutoNation Finance portfolio grows past $2.4 billion, the amount from Q1 2026.
Worry ifAutoNation Finance portfolio growth stops. It falls below $2.4 billion.
Why it matters: Stable gross profit in After-Sales is key for profits. It shows customer loyalty and service quality.
Watch forAfter-Sales gross profit remains above $1.2 billion in Q2 2026.
Also watch forAfter-Sales gross profit falls below $1.2 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Big acquisitions would boost market presence and help growth plans.
Supportive ifNew acquisitions were announced. They will add over $600 million in yearly revenue.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions or those announced add less than $600 million in annual revenue.
Why it matters: Growing EPS shows that management wants to make money. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 exceeds $5.56, showing continued growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 falls below $5.56, indicating a slowdown.
Why it matters: A drop would suggest AutoNation might have cash flow problems.
Worry ifCash from operations was less than $22 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operations was more than $22 million.
Why it matters: Acquisitions adding this revenue would show strong growth and market expansion. This could boost future earnings.
Supportive ifNew dealerships are bringing in over $600 million each year.
Worry ifNo new dealerships have been announced. Purchases are adding less than $600 million.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show management believes in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $300 million in Q2.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $300 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A larger decline in unit sales would signal weaker demand and hurt revenue growth.
Worry ifSame-store new vehicle retail unit sales drop more than -5% year over year.
Less concerning ifSame-store new vehicle retail unit sales decline less than -5% year over year.
Why it matters: If adjusted EPS growth is below 2%, it may indicate slowing earnings momentum. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS growth is less than 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EPS growth is 2% or more year over year.