Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Aon plc (AON)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$344.40-0.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
20.41 → 20.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AON yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute $7.5 billion share buyback program | It recently approved a $7.5 billion share buyback, showing confidence in its cash generation. | Intact | Buyback program is cancelled or materially reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AON is a durable-growth business with a premium valuation, rather than a turnaround or deep-value case. The multi-year view is weakened: execution quality is rated fragile, though recent management evidence improved and third-quarter organic growth was solid.
AON trades at a durable premium to peers, and the evidence describes its valuation as expensive. The expectations gap is slightly negative, while the priced-in assessment says the premium is justified and fragility is low rather than reflecting a broader stack of risks.
Near term, organic growth and adjusted margin delivery provide support: third-quarter organic revenue growth was 6%, and adjusted margin expanded 70 basis points from a year earlier. Free cash flow grew only 3% in the first nine months, below management’s double-digit goal, and a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk; recent performance has also weakened relative to the industry.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining at least mid-single-digit organic growth and delivering the stated margin expansion while improving free cash flow growth. A guidance cut or rate cuts would add pressure, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AON has a credible recurring-growth and margin story, but expensive valuation leaves less room for execution to disappoint. The view remains weakened until cash flow progress and relative performance improve. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Aon plc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $6.48. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $5.50 next year |
Diluted EPS: $2.23 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $6.48. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20262.23 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand adjusted operating margin by 70-80 basis points | A primary condition in Aon plc's published investment case. The stated target is operating margin between 0.7% and 0.8%. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 0.6% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain mid-single-digit organic revenue growth | A primary condition in Aon plc's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$21.38 → $20.25 · observed estimates
$19.12B → $21.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $21.38 | $19,116,617,490 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $21.38 | $19,116,617,490 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $21.38 | $19,116,617,490 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $21.36 | $19,172,271,299 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $21.38 | $19,116,617,490 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $21.38 | $19,116,617,490 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $21.38 | $19,116,617,490 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $21.35 | $19,128,756,122 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $21.35 | $19,053,688,550 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $21.35 | $19,053,688,550 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $21.35 | $19,032,442,090 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $21.35 | $19,032,442,090 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $21.36 | $19,029,575,730 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $21.36 | $19,029,575,730 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-07 | $21.33 | $19,055,453,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $21.34 | $19,017,581,610 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $21.34 | $19,017,581,610 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $21.34 | $19,017,581,610 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-11 | $21.34 | $19,017,581,610 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $21.34 | $19,017,581,610 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $21.34 | $19,017,581,610 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $21.33 | $19,055,453,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $21.33 | $19,055,453,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $21.33 | $19,055,453,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $21.33 | $19,055,453,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $21.33 | $19,055,453,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $21.33 | $19,055,453,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $21.33 | $19,055,453,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $21.34 | $19,046,482,359 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $21.34 | $19,046,482,359 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $21.34 | $19,046,482,359 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $21.34 | $19,046,482,359 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $21.34 | $19,046,482,359 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $21.34 | $19,046,482,359 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $21.34 | $19,046,482,359 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $21.34 | $19,046,482,359 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $21.35 | $19,046,482,359 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $21.35 | $19,046,482,359 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $21.35 | $19,046,482,359 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $20.82 | $20,306,536,809 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $20.77 | $20,306,183,868 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $20.73 | $20,379,470,032 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $20.68 | $20,545,434,738 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $20.68 | $20,545,434,738 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $20.68 | $20,545,434,738 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $20.68 | $20,545,434,738 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $20.68 | $20,545,434,738 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $20.65 | $20,718,611,209 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $20.65 | $20,718,611,209 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $20.65 | $20,718,611,209 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $20.64 | $20,709,434,738 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $20.64 | $20,709,434,738 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $20.64 | $20,709,434,738 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $20.64 | $20,709,434,738 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $20.64 | $20,709,434,738 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $20.61 | $20,709,420,615 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $20.61 | $20,709,420,615 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $20.61 | $20,709,420,615 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $20.60 | $20,709,420,615 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $20.60 | $20,709,420,615 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $20.60 | $20,709,420,615 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $20.56 | $20,709,420,615 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $20.56 | $20,709,420,615 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $20.56 | $20,709,420,615 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $20.56 | $20,709,420,615 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $20.56 | $20,709,420,615 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $20.56 | $20,709,420,615 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $20.56 | $20,701,950,026 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $20.56 | $20,701,950,026 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $20.51 | $20,866,905,326 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $20.41 | $21,003,425,207 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $20.41 | $21,003,425,207 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $20.41 | $21,003,425,207 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $20.41 | $21,003,425,207 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $20.42 | $21,053,916,748 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $20.35 | $21,229,149,962 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $20.32 | $21,385,738,197 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $20.32 | $21,531,444,080 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $20.32 | $21,531,444,080 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $20.32 | $21,531,444,080 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $20.32 | $21,531,444,080 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $20.30 | $21,534,044,080 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $20.30 | $21,534,044,080 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $20.30 | $21,534,020,021 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $20.27 | $21,684,737,803 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $20.27 | $21,684,721,021 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $20.24 | $21,714,014,533 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $20.25 | $21,702,002,768 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $20.25 | $21,702,002,768 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $20.23 | $21,707,562,142 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $20.25 | $21,701,032,731 | 13 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.