Aon plc (AON)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-07-07
$356.91-0.15%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $356.91. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $357 AON trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median — but our blended $288 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $355–$394. Note: our $288 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($355–$394). Even the durable-growth case — current growth held at sustainable margins — values it at about $349, at or below today's price, so you're paying beyond even the growth case. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $375.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $358.83 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $345.42 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $48.16 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$355.00 – $394.00 (median $375.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $136.34 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $107.23 | 16.5 | 6.48 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $96.99 | 2.1 | 46.23 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $220.87 | 13.6 | 16.23 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $295.72 | 16.5 | 17.87 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $273.93 | 3.4 | 81.18 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $444.36 | 24.9 | 17.87 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $102.74 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $364.98 | 20.4 | 17.87 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $297.88 | 16.5 | 18.00 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $154.55 | 16.5 | 9.34 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $261.82 | 13.6 | 19.25 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $99.27 | 16.5 | 6.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $84.08 | 3.4 | 24.92 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $149.17 | 24.9 | 6.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $122.53 | 20.4 | 6.00 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $197.19 | 16.5 | 11.92 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $293.26 | 13.6 | 21.56 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |