Aon plc (AON)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$344.40-0.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 24.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AON — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Term Loan Credit Agreement On September 18, 2026, Aon plc, an Irish public limited company (the “Company”), Aon Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“Aon Corporation”), Aon Global Holdings plc, a public limited company organized under the laws of England and Wales (“AGH”), Aon Global Limited, a private limited company organized under the laws of England and Wales (“AGL”), and Aon North America, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ANA”), entered into a Cre…
Why it matters: Aon tied the deal to a bigger U.S. middle-market business. A delay could push back the planned debt paydown and integration.
Watch forAon reports that the USI deal closed by December 31, 2026.
Also watch forAon reports that the deal has not closed by December 31, 2026, or cites a delay in required approvals.
Why it matters: Aon has made mid-single-digit growth a key goal. Q3 growth reached 6%, led by commercial risk and reinsurance.
Watch forAon's next reported organic revenue growth is 6% or higher.
Also watch forAon's next reported organic revenue growth is below 5%.
Why it matters: Aon says the deal can add $395 million in yearly net adjusted EBITDA from cost and revenue gains. Reported progress will test the deal's value plan.
Watch forAon reports a clear path to $395 million in yearly net adjusted EBITDA gains. It lists dated steps toward that amount.
Also watch forAon cuts the $395 million goal or reports that the expected gains are delayed or lower.
Why it matters: Aon lists double-digit free cash flow growth as a goal. Nine-month free cash flow was up only 3%, while USI costs and working capital weighed on cash.
Watch forAon's next nine-month free cash flow report shows growth of 10% or more year over year.
Also watch forAon's next nine-month free cash flow report shows growth below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $250 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,933 loss on $10,000 · 29.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.