Aon plc (AON)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$323.09-1.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AON — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-17
CFO — Edmund Reese: The outgoing CFO transitions to a senior advisor role with an immediate internal interim successor, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: Updates on the combination will show progress in getting approvals. They may also show benefits.
Supportive ifAon shares good news about getting approvals for the combination.
Worry ifAon has delays in getting approvals from regulators.
Why it matters: A slowdown in buybacks may show a change in how capital is used.
Worry ifShare repurchases drop below $600 million in a quarter.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases remain at or above $600 million in a quarter.
Why it matters: Getting these synergies would help Aon's financial goals and increase profits. It shows good integration after selling parts of the business.
Supportive ifManagement says they have achieved at least $800 million in cost savings.
Worry ifManagement says the benefits are less than expected. They also mention delays.
Why it matters: The buyback program could signal strong cash flow and management's confidence in Aon's value.
Supportive ifAon executes $1 billion or more of share buybacks within the next quarter.
Worry ifAon announces no share buybacks or reduces the buyback program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $250 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,683 loss on $10,000 · 16.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Successful sales will help meet rules and finish the merger.
Supportive ifSales of $1.4 billion are completed as planned.
Worry ifDelays or problems in completing the planned sales.
Why it matters: If margin expansion is low, costs may be rising or there may be inefficiencies.
Worry ifOperating margin growth was below 70 basis points.
Less concerning ifOperating margin grows by 70 basis points or more.
Why it matters: This merger could greatly affect Aon's growth and market share. Getting regulatory approvals is important.
Supportive ifThe U.S. Department of Justice has approved the merger.
Worry ifThere are more delays or rejections from regulators.
Why it matters: Closing the USI deal would show Aon's plan to grow its middle-market platform. This could create big growth chances.
Supportive ifThe deal will close by the end of Q4 2026. All regulatory approvals are secured.
Worry ifThe deal does not close by the expected date. It may also face big regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Aon keeps organic growth above 5%. This shows a strong market position. It also shows good strategy execution.
Supportive ifQ3 organic revenue growth is above 5%.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth is below 5%.
Why it matters: Double-digit free cash flow growth backs Aon's capital plans and returns to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow growth reported above 10% in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow growth reported below 10% in Q3.