A. O. Smith (AOS)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-07-07
$61.31-1.82%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track AOS free→A. O. Smith leads North America in water heaters. Revenue is expected near $3.96B in 2026, growing about 4.8%. Profit per share is guided at $3.8, showing solid earnings. The company manages China challenges and invests in new products.
Sales in China fell 12% in 2025 and remain weak. The company missed Q1 2026 earnings and lowered full-year EPS guidance. Growth is slow and market conditions are tough, risking further profit cuts.
The stock trades about 7% below our fair value near $66. Analysts expect about 5% revenue growth. Our fair value is 12% below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism versus peers.
Breaks if: China sales decline worsens beyond -12% in FY26
A. O. Smith is focused on managing the challenging market conditions in China, which have impacted sales.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. China sales decreased 12% in 2025, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the market. The company has consistently highlighted these difficulties, but the trajectory remains challenging with limited progress in reversing the decline.
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“We expect the challenges in the China market to continue and are forecasting a mid-single digit sales decline.”
“Continued challenging conditions in China.”
“Continued economic challenges in China.”
“Broad economic challenges in China persist.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $3.60 in FY26
A. O. Smith has lowered its full-year 2026 EPS outlook due to continued challenging conditions.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance was lowered to $3.60-$3.90 for 2026, reflecting the company's response to ongoing challenges. The trajectory indicates a cautious outlook with adjustments to expectations.
“The Company also lowered its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to be between $3.70 and $4.00.”
“2026 full year EPS guidance lowered to: Diluted EPS of between $3.60 and $3.90.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.85B in FY26
A. O. Smith aims to increase its consolidated sales by 2% to 5% in 2026 compared to 2025.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $3,818M in 2024 to $3,830M in 2025. Despite the stated goal, the growth trajectory has been limited, indicating persistent statement with limited substantive delivery so far.
“Our outlook for 2026...projects our consolidated sales to increase 2% to 5% compared to 2025.”
“We have raised our full year sales outlook.”
“Consolidated sales projected to range from flat to up 1%.”
“Raised full year 2025 sales outlook.”