APA
APA CorporationNASDAQEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, APA has a low confidence label with a score of 56.8. The company momentum score significantly increased to 73.3, rising by 80.0 points. However, the overall analysis is provisional, and the composite score is not available. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as inflation, labor, growth, and rates.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.21
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.56 → $1.83 (+17.3% / 30d). 14 raised, 2 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 28% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.1% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
11 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve $450M controllable spend savingscostmixed65% progress
2/25: “Now targeting $450 million run-rate controllable spend savings by year-end 2026.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Achieved $350 million in run-rate controllable spend savings by year-end 2025. The trajectory shows progress towards the $450 million target by 2026, indicating delivering on cost reduction initiatives.
- 2.Increase U.S. oil productiongrowthmixed65% progress
5/6: “The company is raising its U.S. oil production outlook to 122,000 barrels per day.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. U.S. oil production guidance raised to 122,000 barrels per day for 2026. Production was 132,000 barrels per day in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards the target.
- 3.Develop GranMorgu projectcapital allocationwatchprovisional
8/7: “Full-year 2025 capital guidance for the GranMorgu project was raised to $275 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Full-year 2025 capital guidance for the GranMorgu project was raised to $275 million. The project remains on track for first oil by mid-2028, indicating alignment with strategic capital allocation.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 59%; 252d 46%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −20%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.13 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 23/100, drawdown 60/100, beta 13/100, earnings vol —.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 100
Company momentum rose by 80.0 points (from -6.7 to 73.3).
- label change · confidence_labelseverity 20
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'low'.
As of 2026-05-08, APA's company momentum score rose by 80.0 points, increasing from -6.7 to 73.3. However, the confidence label changed from 'medium' to 'low'. The overall situation is marked as provisional.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve $450M controllable spend savings
CostNew since 2026-05-04APA aims to achieve $450 million in controllable spend savings by year-end 2026.
Watch →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Achieved $350 million in run-rate controllable spend savings by year-end 2025. The trajectory shows progress towards the $450 million target by 2026, indicating delivering on cost reduction initiatives.
65%CEO/CFO:“Now targeting $450 million run-rate controllable spend savings by year-end 2026.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-25Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“Achieved $350 million in run-rate controllable spend savings by year-end 2025.”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“Expect to achieve $350 million in run-rate controllable spend savings by year-end 2025.”
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“Accelerated three-year cost reduction initiatives, targeting to achieve $350 million in run-rate savings in 2026.”
- #2
Increase U.S. oil production
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04APA aims to increase U.S. oil production to 122,000 barrels per day in 2026.
Watch →MixedStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. U.S. oil production guidance raised to 122,000 barrels per day for 2026. Production was 132,000 barrels per day in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards the target.
65%CEO/CFO:“The company is raising its U.S. oil production outlook to 122,000 barrels per day.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“U.S. oil production guidance has been raised to 123,000 barrels-per-day.”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“Delivered U.S. oil production of 132,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter.”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“U.S. oil production was 121,000 barrels per day, exceeding guidance.”
- #3
Develop GranMorgu project
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04APA plans to invest in the GranMorgu project with a focus on achieving first oil by mid-2028.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Full-year 2025 capital guidance for the GranMorgu project was raised to $275 million. The project remains on track for first oil by mid-2028, indicating alignment with strategic capital allocation.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Full-year 2025 capital guidance for the GranMorgu project was raised to $275 million.”Earnings callSource dated 2025-08-07Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q2Earnings call
“GranMorgu project was raised to $275 million, reflecting additional milestone payments.”
- 2025-Q1Earnings call
“Project costs remain unchanged, and we remain on track for first oil by the middle of 2028.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
0 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APA APA Corporation | — | — | elevated |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-063d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, APA Corporation issued a press release announcing financial and operating results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 74 - 2026-04-1424d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 14, 2026, APA Corporation issued a press release announcing supplemental information regarding certain financial and operating results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 42 - 2026-02-252mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, APA Corporation issued a press release announcing financial and operating results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 14 - 2026-01-203mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 20, 2026, APA Corporation issued a press release announcing supplemental information regarding certain financial and operating results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 6 - 2025-11-056mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, APA Corporation issued a press release announcing financial and operating results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 1
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.