Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
APA Corporation (APA)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.48-2.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.51 → 5.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for APA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $450M controllable spend savings by end 2026 | A primary condition in APA Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $450 million total savings. | Intact | controllable spend savings fall below $350 million run-rate by end 2025 or fail to progress toward $450 million by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
APA is a cyclical energy producer, so results depend in part on the sector backdrop. The long-term thesis is intact after strong recent financial performance, but confidence is low because earnings quality is fragile and risk is elevated.
APA is described as cheap versus peers, and the evidence does not show a broad combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions already reflected in expectations. The available evidence does not specify exactly what earnings or production assumptions the market expects.
Near term, three reported earnings beats and higher U.S. oil production guidance support the recent performance picture, while management has also raised its cost-savings target. However, earnings surprises have been erratic, including a deep miss in recent history, so execution remains a concern despite a stated low near-term miss risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on APA sustaining its recently raised guidance and delivering on cost savings and U.S. production goals. Over the multi-year view, GranMorgu remains a key growth project, with first oil planned for mid-2028; sector leaders’ results and guidance could also strengthen or weaken the energy-sector tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, APA combines recent operational strength and peer-relative cheapness with fragile earnings quality and meaningful sector sensitivity. The thesis is intact, but confidence is low and depends on continued execution and a supportive sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Sustain EPS near $6.33 for FY26 |
| Its valuation is cheap compared to peers, with a price-to-earnings ratio near 8. |
| Improving |
| EPS falls below $6.33 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $2.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.33 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20262.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain U.S. oil production at 125,000 to 127,000 barrels per day | oil production is steady at about 126,000 barrels per day. | Intact | U.S. oil production falls below 125,000 barrels per day in FY25 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Exploration and GranMorgu development represent approximately 60% of the $400 million year-over-year increase, with the balance reflecting increased Permian activity and expected service cost inflation.” “Full-year guidance update For full-year 2026, APA is raising its U.S. oil production outlook to 123,000 barrels of oil per day while maintaining U.S. capital at $1.3 billion.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.10 → $5.30 · observed estimates
$7.99B → $8.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.10 | $7,985,460,460 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.10 | $7,996,960,460 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.10 | $7,996,960,460 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.88 | $8,040,711,685 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.10 | $7,996,960,460 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.12 | $7,996,960,460 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.12 | $7,996,960,460 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.12 | $7,996,960,460 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.12 | $7,996,960,460 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.12 | $7,996,960,460 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.12 | $7,996,960,460 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.12 | $7,996,960,460 | 22 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.12 | $8,041,846,140 | 22 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.12 | $8,041,846,140 | 22 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.87 | $8,037,339,508 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.10 | $7,984,936,910 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.10 | $7,984,936,910 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.10 | $7,984,936,910 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.87 | $8,037,339,508 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.21 | $7,909,136,910 | 22 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.87 | $8,037,339,508 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.87 | $8,037,339,508 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.87 | $8,037,339,508 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.87 | $8,037,339,508 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.87 | $8,037,339,508 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.87 | $8,037,339,508 | 14 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.87 | $8,037,339,508 | 13 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.04 | $8,029,110,280 | 14 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.11 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.11 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.11 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.11 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.12 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.12 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.12 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.12 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.12 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.12 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.12 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.12 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.12 | $8,028,188,369 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.11 | $8,064,365,733 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.11 | $8,064,365,733 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.09 | $8,045,102,575 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.12 | $8,056,455,469 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.12 | $8,056,455,469 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.12 | $8,056,455,469 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.15 | $8,056,455,469 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.15 | $8,056,455,469 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.16 | $8,056,455,469 | 15 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.16 | $8,056,455,469 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.20 | $8,081,823,890 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.20 | $8,081,823,890 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.30 | $8,081,823,890 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.30 | $8,081,823,890 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.30 | $8,081,823,890 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.30 | $8,081,823,890 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.30 | $8,081,823,890 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.30 | $8,081,823,890 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.30 | $8,081,823,890 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.37 | $8,080,450,206 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.37 | $8,080,450,206 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.37 | $8,080,450,206 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.37 | $8,080,450,206 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.37 | $8,080,450,206 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.37 | $8,080,450,206 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.37 | $8,080,450,206 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.37 | $8,080,450,206 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.37 | $8,080,450,206 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.37 | $8,080,450,206 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.40 | $8,102,977,154 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.47 | $8,117,151,001 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.51 | $8,117,151,001 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.51 | $8,117,151,001 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.52 | $8,117,151,001 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.54 | $8,137,677,317 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.54 | $8,137,677,317 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.60 | $8,176,624,685 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.60 | $8,176,624,685 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.60 | $8,186,398,206 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.60 | $8,186,398,206 | 16 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.65 | $8,279,820,079 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.61 | $8,254,128,080 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.65 | $8,254,128,080 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.96 | $8,416,719,471 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.96 | $8,416,719,471 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.96 | $8,416,719,471 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.05 | $8,476,338,519 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.05 | $8,476,338,519 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.11 | $8,490,506,566 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.11 | $8,490,506,566 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.17 | $8,534,944,661 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.17 | $8,534,944,661 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.17 | $8,534,944,661 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.17 | $8,534,944,661 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.17 | $8,534,944,661 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.30 | $8,612,030,740 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.30 | $8,612,030,740 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.30 | $8,612,030,740 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.30 | $8,612,030,740 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.30 | $8,612,030,739 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.30 | $8,612,030,739 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.30 | $8,612,030,739 | 16 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.30 | $8,612,030,739 | 16 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
5 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.