APA Corporation (APA)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-07-08
$35.06+3.12%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $35.06. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 APA trades at 8.3× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $40 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $36–$57. Not investment advice.
$36.00 – $57.00 (median $40.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-22
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $40.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $32.12 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $27.81 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $4.30 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $53.52 | 13.7 | 3.92 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $67.54 | 16.5 | 4.09 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $14.77 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $32.51 | 7.9 | 4.09 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $70.07 | 16.5 | 4.24 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $43.72 | 13.7 | 3.20 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $73.24 | 16.5 | 4.44 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $35.26 | 7.9 | 4.44 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $38.20 | 13.7 | 2.80 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $77.31 | 16.5 | 4.68 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $37.22 | 7.9 | 4.68 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.