APA Corporation (APA)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.77-3.19%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
APA — officer change
Dated 2026-05-26
The filing describes a shareholder approval of an amendment to the company's compensation plan, which is not related to any management change.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal will give APA more options for projects and timelines.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes by year-end 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed beyond year-end 2026 or fails to close.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps pay off debt and rewards shareholders. These are key for APA.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $1 billion for the full year 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $800 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Revisions can show changes in how well a company is doing and market conditions.
Watch forQ3 production guidance is raised above 123,000 barrels per day.
Also watch forQ3 production guidance is lowered below 121,000 barrels per day.
Why it matters: Reaching this target would help make more money and improve cash flow.
Supportive ifLook for news on reaching or exceeding $450 million in savings.
Worry ifNot reporting progress towards the $450 million savings target is a bad sign.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows good cost control and running operations well.
Supportive ifRun-rate cost savings reported at or above $500 million by Q4 2026.
Worry ifRun-rate cost savings reported below $450 million by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this production level shows strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifProduction reported at or above 467,000 BOE per day for Q3.
Worry ifProduction reported below 450,000 BOE per day for Q3.
Why it matters: More debt reduction would help the balance sheet and lower interest costs.
Supportive ifThey announced total debt reduction over $2.3 billion since the end of 2024.
Worry ifDebt reduction fails to meet or falls short of the $2.3 billion target.
Why it matters: Earnings results show the company's financial health and how well it operates.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income is better than in previous quarters.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a big drop in net income or bigger losses.
Why it matters: This level shows that management is growing and running things well in the Permian Basin.
Supportive ifU.S. oil production reaches or exceeds 123,000 barrels per day in Q3 2026.
Worry ifU.S. oil production falls below 121,000 barrels per day in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher free cash flow supports shareholder returns and strengthens the balance sheet.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $738 million in future quarters.
Worry ifFree cash flow drops below $600 million, indicating financial strain.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows APA wants to work better and cut costs.
Supportive ifAPA expects to save over $500 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifCost savings are below $450 million. This shows there are issues with execution.
Why it matters: Progress on this project is key for future production and cash flow growth.
Supportive ifLook for news on key milestones or budget increases for the GranMorgu project.
Worry ifDelays or budget cuts announced for the GranMorgu project.
Why it matters: Achieving this target would strengthen the balance sheet and improve cash flow.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save $450 million in controllable spending by the end of 2026.
Worry ifManagement says they may not reach the $450 million savings target.
Why it matters: A higher production forecast shows strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifU.S. oil production guidance raised above 123,000 barrels per day.
Worry ifGuidance remains at or below 123,000 barrels per day.
Why it matters: This budget increase signals commitment to the project and long-term growth potential.
Supportive ifThe GranMorgu project capital budget is set at $275 million for 2025.
Worry ifThe GranMorgu project capital budget is less than $275 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$188 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $397 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,820 loss on $10,000 · 28.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.