APA Corporation (APA)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.48-2.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · APA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers
APA — officer change
Dated 2026-05-26
The filing describes a shareholder approval of an amendment to the company's compensation plan, which is not related to any management change.
Why it matters: The deal would give APA nearby pipeline and field assets. APA says these can speed plans and lower future costs.
Supportive ifAPA says the Savant deal closed by December 31, 2026, after all needed approvals.
Worry ifAPA says the deal ended, or stayed open after December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: APA names GranMorgu as a source of future oil growth. A delay to the mid-2028 first-oil target would weaken that plan.
Watch forAPA keeps GranMorgu's first-oil target at mid-2028 and reports the project on track.
Also watch forAPA reports a delay beyond 2028 or drops the mid-2028 first-oil target.
Why it matters: APA raised its 2026 U.S. oil goal to 123,000 barrels per day. Meeting it would support its growth plan.
Supportive ifIn the Q3 results, U.S. oil production is at least 123,000 barrels per day.
Worry ifIn the Q3 results, U.S. oil production is below 121,000 barrels per day.
Why it matters: APA raised its year-end savings goal from $450 million to $500 million. Reaching it would show that cost cuts are on track.
Supportive ifAPA reports a 2026 exit run-rate of at least $500 million in cost savings.
Worry ifAPA reports a 2026 exit run-rate below $450 million, or cuts its $500 million goal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$161 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $420 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,820 loss on $10,000 · 28.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.