Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.34+0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue reaches about $15 billion in FY26: FY26 revenue guidance $14.0M-$16.0M vs ~$15B target; low end at trip condition.
Aurora aims to grow revenue to about $15 billion in 2026. Free cash flow is expected near $205 million. Partnerships like with McLane improve market reach. Analyst ratings mostly support a positive outlook.
Aurora is still loss-making and burning cash. Safety and cash concerns hurt confidence. Insider stock sales raise doubts about leadership's conviction.
The price is about 50% below our fair value near $12.5. The market prices in a weak outlook, but consensus revenue growth is uncertain.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $190M in FY26
Breaks if: Loss of major partnerships or no new deals announced
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $14B in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation. AUR is currently loss-making, facing weak financial performance and elevated risks, but management is focused on scaling driverless truck deployment and increasing revenue significantly over the next year.
The market seems to have low expectations for AUR, given its recent earnings misses and the weak financial performance compared to peers. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the current valuation does not reflect significant risks, but it also suggests limited upside potential without improvement.
Management is on track with its revenue guidance, aiming for a significant increase in 2026. However, the recent financial performance has been weak, and there is a history of earnings misses, which adds uncertainty to the near-term outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company announced an Analyst Day. This event may improve transparency and communication with investors. However, the latest earnings report showed a miss. This miss raises concerns about the company's performance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
The long-term thesis hinges on AUR's ability to execute its plans for scaling driverless trucks and achieving its revenue targets. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector peers will play a critical role in shaping the company's future.
In the next 1 to 3 years, AUR's success will depend on its operational execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.