Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.34+0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AUR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers
AUR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: This milestone helps Aurora make more products. It also helps meet customer needs.
Supportive ifRoush completes the build of 1,000 trucks by October 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 1,000 trucks are built by Roush by October 2026.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a turnaround for the company and sector.
Supportive ifRevenue growth turns positive year over year for Q3.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative year over year for Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong growth and demand for Aurora's services. It reflects the company's scaling efforts.
Supportive ifAurora reports full-year revenue of $14 million or more.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $14 million for 2026.
Why it matters: The consumer discretionary sector is going down. Positive revenue growth may mean a recovery.
Supportive ifThe consumer discretionary sector is seeing revenue growth. This is the first time in over a year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative for another quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$257 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $656 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,850 loss on $10,000 · 38.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Securing these contracts is crucial for scaling the business model in 2027.
Supportive ifAurora signs new DaaS contracts with multiple customers.
Worry ifAurora fails to secure new DaaS contracts in the coming months.
Why it matters: Exceeding this cash use could indicate financial stress as Aurora scales operations. It may affect future funding needs.
Worry ifAurora's cash use stays between $190 million and $220 million.
Less concerning ifOperating cash use exceeds $220 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows Aurora can manage cash while growing.
Supportive ifQuarterly cash use is between $190-$220 million.
Worry ifQuarterly cash use exceeds $220 million.
Why it matters: This launch is important for Aurora to grow and meet customer needs.
Supportive ifAurora runs 200 driverless trucks by the end of 2026.
Worry ifAurora fails to deploy 200 driverless trucks by year-end.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong growth and supports management's plan.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $14 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $14 million.
Why it matters: Lower hardware costs help reach breakeven margins and increase production.
Supportive ifAurora reports a reduction in hardware costs by over 50%.
Worry ifAurora fails to achieve a reduction in hardware costs.