Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.34+0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put AUR beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Automotive Parts & Equipment is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Revenue reaches about $15 billion in FY26: FY26 revenue guidance $14.0M-$16.0M vs ~$15B target; low end at trip condition.
View ThesisRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 11%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityManagement screens weak on capital allocation, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 39% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAurora Innovation's growth depends on scaling its commercial deployment of driverless trucks. Revenue guidance for FY26 is between $14 billion and $16 billion, with a target of about $15 billion. The last quarter showed a 100% year-over-year revenue increase, but it missed expectations. The company trades at a valuation that suggests it looks cheap compared to peers, but it is still below typical for the sector. A specific risk is the potential for a guidance cut, which our model puts at a 23% probability for the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 55% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. AUR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 14 analysts currently covering AUR (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare AUR with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUR Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automotive Parts & Equipment — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put AUR next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Scale commercial deployment of driverless trucks
Partnership enhances scaling of driverless truck deployment.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Scale commercial deployment of driverless trucks
Targets significant growth in driverless truck deployment.
Outperform rating supports positive outlook for AUR.
Outperform rating supports positive outlook for AUR.
Partnership with McLane enhances AUR's market position.
Buy rating indicates strong future potential for AUR.
Outperform recommendation boosts confidence in AUR.
Increased price target reflects positive analyst sentiment.