Avery Dennison (AVY)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$175.06+1.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
AVY — President transition
Dated 2026-06-04
President, Materials Group — Ryan D. Yost: Mr. Ryan D. Yost resigned to accept another opportunity.
Why it matters: A drop would show problems in keeping profits in the main segment. It shows effectiveness.
Worry ifOperating margin for Materials Group was less than 15.6%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin for Materials Group was more than 15.6%.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can impact strategy and how well key segments perform.
Watch forNew leadership in the Materials Group drives improved sales growth in the next quarter.
Also watch forSales in the Materials Group drop more after the leadership change.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change how strategies are carried out. This can affect performance.
Worry ifNo drop in sales or margins was seen in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifSales or margins drop a lot in the next quarter after the leadership change.
Why it matters: Growth in high-value categories is key for making more money. It shows a clear focus.
Supportive ifHigh-value category revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifHigh-value category revenue growth is less than 1% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Sales trends in the Materials Group will signal the health of Avery Dennison's core business.
Worry ifMaterials Group sales grow year over year by more than 2% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifMaterials Group sales decline year over year by more than 2% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A lower ratio means better financial health and more ability to invest in growth.
Supportive ifNet debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improves to below 2.0x.
Worry ifNet debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio remains above 2.3x.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth can mean a recovery. This impacts Avery Dennison's performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive in the next quarter.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Avery Dennison's growth in high-value categories is important. It helps boost revenue and margins.
Supportive ifIn Q3, organic sales growth in high-value categories is over 5%.
Worry ifIn Q3, organic sales growth in high-value categories is under 2%.
Why it matters: Cost savings from restructuring can help improve margins and profits.
Supportive ifCost savings from restructuring actions exceed $40 million in Q3.
Worry ifCost savings from restructuring actions fall below $20 million in Q3.
Why it matters: This shows the company may slow its growth. This is true in high-value areas.
Worry ifQ3 2026 organic sales growth is below 7%.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 organic sales growth reported at or above 7%.
Why it matters: Lower guidance may show trouble keeping earnings strong.
Worry ifQ3 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is below $2.21.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 adjusted EPS guidance reported at or above $2.21.
Why it matters: This shows the company is serious about smart spending. They want to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal capital returns are over $347 million in 2026.
Worry ifTotal capital returns fall below $347 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Lower savings may show trouble with costs and efficiency.
Worry ifRestructuring savings will be less than $34 million in 2026.
Less concerning ifRestructuring savings are at or above $34 million in 2026.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$117 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $217 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,212 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.