Avery Dennison (AVY)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$175.06+1.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Grow revenue in high-value categories to at least 4% of total: metric not reported.
Avery Dennison grows sales about 4% a year. High-value products make 45% of sales. The company returns $860 million to shareholders yearly. Cost cuts saved $60 million in 2025.
Key executives left recently, which may hurt strategy. Sales growth is slow and below targets. Cost savings have not improved profits much.
The price is about 7% below our fair value near $177. Analysts expect about 4% revenue growth. Our fair value is 14% below the Street median.
Breaks if: annual shareholder returns fall below $700 million
Continue disciplined capital deployment including share repurchases, dividends, and strategic acquisitions while managing net debt levels.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and a focus on high-value categories.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, suggesting that AVY is seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a small expectations gap, indicating that the market is not overly optimistic about future performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given the company's strong recent financial performance and disciplined capital allocation. However, there is a moderate risk due to a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although the overall miss risk is low.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth in high-value categories and the impact of external factors like inflation and sector performance. Key triggers include guidance from management and performance of sector bellwethers.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Growth in high-value categories was confirmed by recent performance. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. The company returned $347 million in cash to shareholders in first half 2026, including $133 million in Q1 and $214 million in Q2. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA remained stable at 2.3x in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering on disciplined capital allocation.
“Returned $347 million in cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.”
“Returned $133 million in cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.”
“Returned $861 million in cash to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases.”
“Returned $670 million in cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.”
“Returned $503 million in cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.”
“Returned $331 million in cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.”
“Returned $525 million in cash to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases.”
Breaks if: cost savings fall below $40 million pre-tax
Continue restructuring actions to realize cost savings and improve margins, offsetting inflation and other cost pressures.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. The company realized $34 million in pre-tax savings from restructuring in first half 2026, up from $17 million in Q1. In 2025, savings exceeded $60 million. Management is delivering consistent cost reductions through restructuring.
“Realized approximately $34 million in pre-tax savings from restructuring actions in first half 2026.”
“Realized approximately $17 million in pre-tax savings from restructuring actions in first quarter 2026.”
“Realized more than $60 million in pre-tax savings from restructuring actions in 2025.”
“Realized approximately $48 million in pre-tax savings from restructuring through first three quarters 2025.”
“Realized approximately $30 million in pre-tax savings from restructuring in first half 2025.”
“Realized approximately $14 million in pre-tax savings from restructuring in first quarter 2025.”
“Realized approximately $63 million in pre-tax savings from restructuring in 2024.”
Breaks if: high-value categories fall below 4% of total revenue
Focus on innovation and service-led differentiation to drive strong organic sales growth in high-value categories across Materials and Solutions Groups.
Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Management consistently emphasized driving growth in high-value categories, which represent about 45% of revenue. Organic sales grew 7.6% in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong execution of this strategy. The trajectory is delivering with sustained growth in these segments.
“Driving strong organic sales growth across both our high-value categories and base businesses.”
“Executing a clear strategy to drive earnings growth underpinned by innovation and service-led differentiation.”
“Driving outsized growth in high-value categories, which now represent approximately 45% of our total revenue.”
“Focus on driving outsized growth in our high-value categories.”
“Growth in our high-value categories and productivity in the base business offset tariff impacts.”
“High-value categories, including Intelligent Labels, up high single digits in total.”
“Accelerating growth in our high-value categories, which now account for almost half of our portfolio.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, AVY's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and external market conditions. Not investment advice.