Avery Dennison (AVY)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-07-08
$164.40-0.99%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track AVY free→A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. Slower and deeper than the daily snapshot — it refreshes only when the evidence moves.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in high-value categories. The current thesis is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong, although there are challenges in execution.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, suggesting that AVY is seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market does not expect significant positive surprises in the near term.
Management's execution has been mixed, with limited progress in growth despite a strong focus on high-value categories. Near-term risks are moderate, with a low probability of missing guidance, but past performance raises caution.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SW, PKG, and IP. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a positive lift to AVY. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could create headwinds.
Overall, AVY's fundamentals are stable but require careful monitoring of sector trends and management execution. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read, indicating strong financial performance. However, the loss of a key executive poses a threat to the company's strategic direction.
as of 2026-07-08
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Sales trends in the Materials Group will signal the health of Avery Dennison's core business.
Confirms:Materials Group sales grow year over year by more than 2% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Materials Group sales decline year over year by more than 2% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating EPS guidance shows strong earnings and confidence from management.
Confirms:Q4 2025 reported EPS guidance meets or exceeds $2.25.
Disproves:Q4 2025 reported EPS guidance falls below $2.15.
Why it matters: A lower ratio means better financial health and more ability to invest in growth.
Confirms:Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improves to below 2.0x.
Disproves:Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio remains above 2.3x.
Why it matters: Growth in high-value areas is key for making money and meeting goals.
Confirms:Organic sales in high-value categories grow more than 5% each year.
Disproves:Organic sales in high-value categories decline or grow less than 2% year over year.
Why it matters: More savings from changes would help increase profits and efficiency.
Confirms:Restructuring savings will be over $60 million in 2025.
Disproves:Restructuring savings will be under $40 million in 2025.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.