Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Avery Dennison (AVY)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$189.70-1.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.19 → 11.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return about $860 million to shareholders annually | The company returns $860 million to shareholders yearly. | Intact | annual shareholder returns fall below $700 million | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AVY is a steady industrial business with a sector tailwind, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, though earnings quality is fragile and recent company momentum has weakened.
Valuation is stretched, at a modest premium to peers, with expectations somewhat ahead of the evidence. The snapshot describes low fragility, so the valuation concern is not a broad combination of weak execution and turbulent conditions.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong: third-quarter sales grew year over year, led by Materials, while Solutions growth was modest. Restructuring savings and capital returns show execution, but lower operating margin and uneven segment growth leave productivity results mixed; reported miss risk is low, though peers have missed and AVY has a history of a deep miss.
The multi-year view depends on whether growth broadens beyond Materials and productivity gains can offset cost and mix pressures. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the industry tailwind; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
Over the next one to three years, AVY’s thesis remains intact, supported by recent results and a favorable sector backdrop, but the stretched valuation leaves less room for uneven execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cost cuts saved $60 million in 2025. |
| Intact |
| cost savings fall below $40 million pre-tax |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow revenue in high-value categories to at least 4% of total | High-value products make 45% of sales. | Under Pressure | high-value categories fall below 4% of total revenue | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Our focus on innovation and service-led differentiation drove mid-single digit organic growth in both our high-value categories and base businesses.” ““Throughout the year, we made consistent progress advancing our key strategies, notably driving outsized growth in high-value categories, which now represent approximately 45% of our total revenue, as well as continuing to advance our differentiation by accelerating innovation outcomes across the enterprise.” Revenue was $2.332 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.15 → $11.08 · observed estimates
$9.57B → $9.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.15 | $9,572,738,580 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.15 | $9,572,738,580 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.15 | $9,572,738,580 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.10 | $9,565,420,539 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.15 | $9,572,738,580 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.15 | $9,572,738,580 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.15 | $9,572,738,580 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.15 | $9,572,738,580 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.17 | $9,592,325,734 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.23 | $9,632,919,570 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.23 | $9,632,919,570 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.23 | $9,632,919,570 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.23 | $9,632,919,570 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.23 | $9,632,919,570 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.19 | $9,631,653,601 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.23 | $9,632,919,570 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.23 | $9,632,919,570 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.23 | $9,632,919,570 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $11.23 | $9,632,919,570 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.23 | $9,632,919,570 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.23 | $9,632,919,570 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.19 | $9,631,653,601 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.19 | $9,631,653,601 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.19 | $9,631,653,601 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.19 | $9,631,653,601 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.19 | $9,631,653,601 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.19 | $9,631,653,601 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.19 | $9,631,653,601 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.19 | $9,631,655,771 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.19 | $9,631,650,621 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.19 | $9,633,640,563 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.19 | $9,641,954,571 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.19 | $9,641,954,571 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.19 | $9,641,954,571 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.19 | $9,641,954,571 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.19 | $9,641,954,571 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.19 | $9,641,954,571 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.19 | $9,641,954,571 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.18 | $9,641,957,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.18 | $9,641,957,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.18 | $9,641,957,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.18 | $9,641,957,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.18 | $9,639,057,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.18 | $9,639,057,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.18 | $9,639,057,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.18 | $9,639,057,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.18 | $9,639,057,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.18 | $9,639,057,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.18 | $9,639,057,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.18 | $9,639,057,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.18 | $9,639,057,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.18 | $9,639,057,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.18 | $9,639,057,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.18 | $9,639,057,489 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.11 | $9,639,460,165 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.11 | $9,642,567,070 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.11 | $9,642,567,070 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.11 | $9,642,567,070 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.08 | $9,641,643,193 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.08 | $9,641,643,193 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.