American Express (AXP)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$326.16-1.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 35.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
AXP — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2026-08-12
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On August 12, 2026, American Express Company (the “Company”) issued 1,600 shares of 6.450% Fixed Rate Reset Noncumulative Preferred Shares, Series E, $1.66 ⅔ par value per share (the “Series E Preferred Shares”), which were deposited against delivery of depositary receipts (the “Depositary Receipts”) evidencing 1,600,000 Depositary Shares (the “Depositary Shares”), each representing a 1/1,000th interest in a Series E Preferred Share. Under…
Why it matters: If EPS is below $17.30, it shows problems with making money and growing.
Worry if2026 EPS reported below $17.30.
Less concerning if2026 EPS reported at $17.30 or higher.
Why it matters: New partnerships could drive higher Card Member spending, boosting revenue growth.
Supportive ifCard Member spending growth exceeds 9% in the next quarter.
Worry ifCard Member spending growth falls below 8%.
Why it matters: DFAST results show that the company is stable. Good results may help return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifDFAST results show capital levels are above what rules require.
Worry ifDFAST results show capital levels are below what rules require.
Why it matters: Earnings per share in this range shows strong financial health. It also shows good cost management.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 EPS reported between $17.30 and $17.90.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS is below $17.30. This may show potential issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $249 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,390 loss on $10,000 · 23.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Announcing the dividend increase shows good use of funds and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says the quarterly dividend stays at $0.95 per share.
Worry ifDividend is not maintained at $0.95 per share.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating the EPS target shows strong performance. This helps investor feelings.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS reported at or above $4.53.
Worry ifQ3 EPS reported below $4.28.
Why it matters: Card Member spending growth is a key driver for revenue. Changes could signal shifts in consumer behavior.
Watch forCard Member spending growth reported above 9% year over year.
Also watch forCard Member spending growth reported below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: The results will show the company's financial health. They show how well it can handle tough times.
Watch forStress test results show strong capital levels and no significant issues.
Also watch forStress test results show issues with capital management. This shows weaknesses.
Why it matters: The 10% revenue growth guidance shows strong business growth. This boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 revenue growth guidance remains at 10% or higher.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q3 revenue growth guidance to below 9%. This is a warning sign.
Why it matters: This acquisition may improve American Express's dining services. It could bring in more customers. This shows smart growth.
Supportive ifTheFork's successful integration leads to more spending by card members in dining.
Worry ifAcquisition fails to close or does not lead to increased spending.
Why it matters: The dividend increase shows strong capital management. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.95 per share.
Worry ifNo announcement of a dividend increase or a decrease in the dividend.
Why it matters: If the company meets or beats this growth rate, it shows strong progress and a good plan.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 9% year over year.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows the company is on track with its earnings goals.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS reported between $17.30 and $17.90.
Worry ifQ3 EPS reported below $17.30.
Why it matters: A steady or lower write-off rate shows good credit health and strong risk control.
Supportive ifNet write-off rate reported below 2.0%.
Worry ifNet write-off rate reported above 2.0%.