American Express (AXP)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$332.59+2.18%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AXP — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-30
Other Events. Exhibits are filed herewith in connection with the issuance by American Express Company (the “Company”), on October 30, 2026, of $1,500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.447% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes due October 30, 2030, $1,150,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.817% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes due October 27, 2034 and $350,000,000 aggregate principal amount of Floating Rate Notes due October 30, 2030 (collectively, the “Notes”) pursuant to a Prospectus Suppleme…
Why it matters: Card spending helps drive Amex revenue. A drop in retail sales would add a warning sign for spending demand.
Worry ifThe November 17 retail sales report shows that retail sales fell from the prior month.
Less concerning ifThe November 17 report shows retail sales are flat or higher month over month.
Why it matters: The Q3 rate fell to 1.8%, from 1.9% a year earlier. A rise above 2.0% would reverse that improvement.
Worry ifA future quarterly net write-off rate rises above 2.0%, compared with Q3's 1.8%.
Less concerning ifThe rate stays at or below 2.0% and does not rise above the Q3 level of 1.8%.
Why it matters: Management said it was on track for 10% full-year revenue growth. Q3 revenue grew 9%.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue net of interest expense grows at least 10% year over year, on an FX-adjusted basis.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth is below 9% year over year, on an FX-adjusted basis, or management cuts its 10% full-year goal.
Why it matters: American Express issued $3 billion in notes, with fixed and floating rates. Higher rates could raise future borrowing costs.
Worry ifA filing or earnings release links the new notes to higher interest expense or funding costs.
Less concerning ifThe next results show no rise in interest expense tied to the new notes.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $268 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,390 loss on $10,000 · 23.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management raised its adjusted EPS range to $17.60–$17.90. A result below the low end would miss that target.
Worry ifFY 2026 adjusted EPS is below $17.60, or management lowers the range below $17.60.
Less concerning ifFY 2026 adjusted EPS is at least $17.60, within or above the raised range.