American Express (AXP)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$326.16-1.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXP
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $326, AXP's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 6.5× p/b (4.1× the 1.6× p/b peer median, and 1.0× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~35% near-term growth vs our ~16% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $241 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $315–$396. Note: our $241 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($315–$396). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $372 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $380.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $271.01 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $372.60 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $38.24 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$315.00 – $396.00 (median $380.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-08-03
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $136.82 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $78.79 | 1.6 | 50.49 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $98.45 | 4.4 | 22.17 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $149.14 | 9.0 | 16.48 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $88.61 | 1.4 | 63.46 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $320.34 | 19.4 | 16.48 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $93.10 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $335.33 | 20.3 | 16.48 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $153.45 | 9.0 | 16.96 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $101.15 | 1.6 | 64.81 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $100.17 | 4.4 | 22.55 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $215.00 | 9.0 | 23.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $210.84 | 1.4 | 150.99 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $461.82 | 19.4 | 23.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $483.42 | 20.3 | 23.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $119.48 | 1.6 | 76.55 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $101.33 | 4.4 | 22.82 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $260.15 | 9.0 | 28.75 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $255.12 | 1.4 | 182.70 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $558.80 | 19.4 | 28.75 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $584.94 | 20.3 | 28.75 | Analyst | high |