American Express (AXP)
NYSEFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$349.59-1.81%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $349.59. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $350, AXP's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 7.1× p/b (3.6× the 1.9× p/b peer median, and 1.1× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~28% near-term growth vs our ~19% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $274 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $322–$415. Note: our $274 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($322–$415). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $398 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$322.00 – $415.00 (median $385.50) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $385.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $242.82 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $271.83 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $133.69 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $185.86 | 10.6 | 17.60 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $96.38 | 1.9 | 49.56 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $92.80 | 4.4 | 20.88 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $169.28 | 10.6 | 16.03 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $82.40 | 1.3 | 61.51 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $141.59 | 8.8 | 16.03 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $90.91 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $315.27 | 19.7 | 16.03 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $173.72 | 10.6 | 16.45 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $295.01 | 10.6 | 27.94 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $126.06 | 1.9 | 64.81 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $88.30 | 4.4 | 19.87 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $247.33 | 10.6 | 23.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $196.33 | 1.3 | 146.55 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $206.87 | 8.8 | 23.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $460.63 | 19.7 | 23.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $401.42 | 10.6 | 38.01 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $150.76 | 1.9 | 77.51 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $85.42 | 4.4 | 19.22 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $299.27 | 10.6 | 28.34 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $237.55 | 1.3 | 177.32 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $250.31 | 8.8 | 28.34 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $557.36 | 19.7 | 28.34 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.