Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-29 · fmp
AutoZone (AZO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3308.97-0.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
191.47 → 191.28 EPS · FY ending Aug 29, 2028 · 20 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 20; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AZO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase earnings per share to at least $151.11 in FY26 | A primary condition in AutoZone's published investment case. The stated target is >=151.11 USD per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $140 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $55.81 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=151.11 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 26, 202655.81 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-29 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a durable business with growth tied to store expansion and steady financial execution, rather than a turnaround. Its multi-year view is intact, and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable.
AZO is valued at a sizable premium to peers, which appears justified by expectations of durable performance, though the expectations gap is slightly negative. Pricing fragility is low, but the valuation leaves limited room for weaker execution to go unnoticed.
Fiscal 2026 sales, operating profit, and cash flow all increased from fiscal 2025, while new store openings also rose. Near-term risk is rated quiet, but a recent history of a deep miss, peer weakness, and a CFO transition warrant attention.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued store expansion and disciplined growth in earnings and cash flow. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while results and guidance from major consumer-sector companies could strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.
AZO’s recent operating record supports an intact 1-to-3-year view, but its peer premium makes execution and guidance important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in AutoZone's published investment case. The stated target is >=8.6% YoY. |
| Under Pressure |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year |
Revenue growth: 5.64% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=8.6% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 26, 20265.640981 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain active share repurchase program with at least $1.5B authorized | A supporting condition in AutoZone's published investment case. The stated target is >=$1.5 billion authorized. | Intact | No buyback authorization or suspension of program within next 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Open at least 82 new stores globally in 2026-Q2 | It opened 82 new stores in 2026-Q2. | Intact | New store openings fall below 60 in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$192.26 → $191.28 · observed estimates
$23.42B → $23.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | $192.26 | $23,419,352,322 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $191.13 | $23,364,803,172 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $191.13 | $23,364,803,172 | 18 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $191.13 | $23,364,803,172 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $191.13 | $23,364,803,172 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $191.13 | $23,364,803,172 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $191.47 | $23,369,846,955 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $191.47 | $23,369,818,711 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $191.47 | $23,369,857,672 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $191.50 | $23,369,857,672 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $191.50 | $23,369,857,672 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $191.50 | $23,369,857,672 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $191.50 | $23,369,857,672 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-19 | $191.50 | $23,369,857,672 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-20 | $191.50 | $23,369,857,672 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-21 | $191.84 | $23,378,057,672 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-22 | $191.84 | $23,378,057,672 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-23 | $191.84 | $23,378,057,672 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $191.84 | $23,378,057,672 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | $191.38 | $23,350,413,393 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $191.38 | $23,350,413,393 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $191.38 | $23,350,413,393 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $191.28 | $23,325,519,131 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $191.28 | $23,325,519,131 | 20 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $191.28 | $23,325,519,131 | 20 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $191.28 | $23,325,519,131 | 20 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $191.28 | $23,325,519,131 | 20 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $191.28 | $23,325,519,131 | 20 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $191.28 | $23,325,519,131 | 20 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $191.28 | $23,325,519,131 | 20 / 18 |
| 2026-11-05 | $191.28 | $23,325,519,131 | 20 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 8, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.