AutoZone (AZO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2983.29+0.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Increase earnings per share to at least $151.11 in FY26: EPS +5.3% beat vs $151.11 target.
AutoZone keeps growing sales about 8% a year. It opened 82 new stores in 2026-Q2. The company is buying back shares with $1.5 billion authorized recently. Profit margins and earnings remain solid despite market challenges.
Competition is rising as O'Reilly eyes a deal with Genuine Parts. Earnings growth is behind management's goal. Recent sharp stock selloff shows investor concerns. Profit growth may slow if competition intensifies.
The price is about 9% above our fair value near $2826. Analysts expect about 9% revenue growth. Our fair value is 25% below the Street median, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $140 in FY26
Focus on disciplined financial management to drive shareholder value.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Net income for 2026-Q2 was $468.9 million, reflecting a focus on increasing earnings. The consistent emphasis on disciplined financial management aligns with the stated priority, showing limited progress in net income growth.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
AZO represents a durable compounder with a focus on aggressive expansion. The current thesis state is intact, but there are challenges in increasing earnings and cash flows.
The market currently reflects a neutral valuation, with a slight expectations gap indicating that investors are not overly optimistic or pessimistic. The stock is priced at a premium compared to peers, suggesting that some growth is already expected.
Management is on track with its store expansion strategy, having opened 82 new stores in the last quarter. However, the company is behind on increasing net income, which may affect its long-term growth potential.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain earnings growth and navigate potential sector challenges. Key factors include guidance updates and inflation trends, which could impact consumer spending.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The average brokerage recommendation is 1.39. This shows strong analyst support for AutoZone. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings fell to $55.08. This suggests lower expectations for the current quarter.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“CEO: 'We remain committed to a disciplined approach of increasing earnings and cash flows.'”
“CEO: 'We will remain committed to our disciplined approach of increasing earnings and cash flow.'”
“CEO: 'Our disciplined approach of increasing earnings and cash flow will deliver strong shareholder value.'”
“CEO: 'We remain committed to our disciplined approach of increasing earnings and cash flow.'”
“CEO: 'We remain committed to our disciplined approach of increasing earnings and cash flow.'”
“CEO: 'We remain committed to our disciplined approach of increasing earnings and cash flow.'”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year
Continue expanding store count globally to increase market share.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Opened 82 new stores globally in 2026-Q2, aligning with the aggressive expansion strategy. The consistent increase in store count indicates delivering on this growth priority.
“CEO: 'We were pleased to have opened 82 new stores globally in the quarter.'”
“CEO: 'We plan to aggressively open stores over the remainder of the fiscal year.'”
“CEO: 'We expect to aggressively open stores in the new year.'”
“CEO: 'We were especially pleased to have opened 141 net new stores globally.'”
“CEO: 'We continue to focus on opening more stores in these markets.'”
“CEO: 'We plan to aggressively open stores over the remainder of the fiscal year.'”
Breaks if: No buyback authorization or suspension of program within next 12 months
Breaks if: New store openings fall below 60 in 2026-Q2
Continue expanding store count globally to increase market share.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Opened 82 new stores globally in 2026-Q2, aligning with the aggressive expansion strategy. The consistent increase in store count indicates delivering on this growth priority.
“CEO: 'We were pleased to have opened 82 new stores globally in the quarter.'”
“CEO: 'We plan to aggressively open stores over the remainder of the fiscal year.'”
“CEO: 'We expect to aggressively open stores in the new year.'”
“CEO: 'We were especially pleased to have opened 141 net new stores globally.'”
“CEO: 'We continue to focus on opening more stores in these markets.'”
“CEO: 'We plan to aggressively open stores over the remainder of the fiscal year.'”
In the next 1 to 3 years, AZO's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.