AutoZone (AZO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3308.97-0.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AZO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 13 industry peers
AZO — CFO transition
Dated 2026-10-26
CFO — Jamere Jackson: The CFO is resigning for an external opportunity, and the company has not yet named a permanent successor, creating a leadership vacuum.
Why it matters: AutoZone opened 374 stores in fiscal 2026, up from 304 in fiscal 2025. More openings would support its stated plan to grow through expansion.
Supportive ifAutoZone reports more than 374 new store openings for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifAutoZone reports 374 or fewer new store openings for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Domestic same-store sales grew 1.6% in fiscal Q4. Management said sales strengthened late in the quarter and expected growth to speed up in fiscal 2027.
Supportive ifFiscal Q1 domestic same-store sales growth is above 1.6% year over year.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 domestic same-store sales growth is below 1.6% year over year.
Why it matters: Fiscal 2026 gross margin fell to 52.3%. Q4's rise included tariff refunds and a non-cash LIFO benefit, so the reported gain may not last.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 gross margin is below 52.3% of sales.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q1 gross margin is at or above 52.3% of sales, without a larger lift from tariff refunds or LIFO changes.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $304 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,964 loss on $10,000 · 29.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.