AutoZone (AZO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2983.29+0.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AZO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 45 industry peers
AZO — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-09
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 7, 2026, AutoZone, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”), by and among the Company and BofA Securities, Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Truist Securities, Inc., and U.S. Bancorp Investments, Inc., as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Underwriters, and the Underwriters agreed to pur…
Why it matters: Same store sales growth shows how well AutoZone is keeping customers. A strong growth rate can indicate solid demand for its products.
Supportive ifSame store sales growth of 4.5% or higher for the next quarter.
Worry ifSame store sales growth drops below 3% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Exceeding this growth rate would signal strong demand and effective sales strategies.
Supportive ifSame store sales growth in Q4 exceeds 4.0% year over year.
Worry ifSame store sales growth in Q4 falls below 3.0% year over year.
Why it matters: This program signals confidence in the company's value and can support share price. It reflects a strong capital allocation strategy.
Supportive ifThe share price stays steady or goes up after the buyback program is announced.
Worry ifThe share price goes down a lot even after the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: A decline in gross margin could indicate rising costs or pricing pressure. This affects profitability.
Worry ifGross margin percentage falls below 52.2%.
Less concerning ifGross margin percentage improves or stays above 52.2%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $304 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,286 loss on $10,000 · 32.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show strong cash flow. They also show a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases exceed $1 billion by the end of FY2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $500 million by the end of FY2026.
Why it matters: Slow sales growth in other countries may show problems in global markets. This can affect overall growth.
Worry ifInternational same store sales growth is below 2%.
Less concerning ifInternational same store sales growth is above 2%.
Why it matters: Going above this level shows strong finances and good cost control.
Supportive ifNet income for Q4 exceeds $700 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q4 falls below $600 million.
Why it matters: Keeping gross margin above this level shows good cost control. It means AutoZone can stay profitable.
Supportive ifGross margin in Q4 stabilizes above 52%.
Worry ifGross margin in Q4 falls below 51%.
Why it matters: Opening new stores shows commitment to growth and market expansion. It signals confidence in future sales.
Supportive ifAutoZone opens more than 100 new stores in Q4.
Worry ifAutoZone opens fewer than 80 new stores in Q4.
Why it matters: A significant increase in share repurchases would signal strong cash flow and confidence in the business. This could support stock price.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $1 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases remain below $500 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Continued share buybacks signal management's confidence in the business. It may support stock price.
Supportive ifRepurchase of at least 150,000 shares in Q3.
Worry ifThere were no share buybacks or a big drop in buybacks in Q3.
Why it matters: New store openings are critical for growth. Fewer openings could indicate a slowdown in expansion plans.
Worry ifFewer than 80 new stores opened in Q3.
Less concerning ifAt least 80 new stores opened in Q3.
Why it matters: Lower growth shows weaker demand in a tough retail market.
Worry ifQ3 same store sales growth reported below 3.5%.
Less concerning ifSame store sales growth exceeds 3.5%.
Why it matters: Fewer new stores may show problems with growth plans and market conditions.
Worry ifTotal new store openings reported below 350 for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal new store openings reach or exceed 350 for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: High inventory growth may mean overstocking and cash flow problems.
Worry ifInventory growth is over 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifInventory growth reported at or below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Increased buybacks could signal confidence in cash flow and support stock price.
Supportive ifAutoZone announces a new repurchase of at least $1 billion in shares.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements or a reduction in buyback plans.