AutoZone (AZO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$3076.88+4.03%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3076.88. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3,077 AZO trades at 21× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median, but our blended $2,828 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $3,200–$4,325. Note: our $2,828 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($3,200–$4,325). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $3,573 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$3200.00 – $4325.00 (median $3783.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $134.83/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $3750.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $1209.45 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1207.99 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $719.08 | 23.2 | 31.04 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $3201.65 | 13.9 | 230.32 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $1889.00 | 19.5 | 96.92 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $3369.54 | 23.2 | 145.45 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $2473.07 | 2.1 | 1186.00 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $9261.71 | 63.7 | 145.45 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $3110.59 | 21.4 | 145.45 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $3350.67 | 23.2 | 144.64 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $1174.59 | 23.2 | 50.70 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $1303.23 | 19.5 | 66.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $4766.44 | 23.2 | 205.75 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $3189.25 | 2.1 | 1529.45 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $13101.31 | 63.7 | 205.75 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $4400.14 | 21.4 | 205.75 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $1629.14 | 23.2 | 70.32 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $1017.53 | 19.5 | 52.20 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $5626.99 | 23.2 | 242.90 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $3765.05 | 2.1 | 1805.58 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $15466.66 | 63.7 | 242.90 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $5194.56 | 21.4 | 242.90 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.