AutoZone (AZO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2983.29+0.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AZO
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2,983 the market pays 19× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $2,811 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $3,200–$4,023. Note: our $2,811 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($3,200–$4,023). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $3,343 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $3700.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1132.34 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $2370.40 | 10.4 | 228.47 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $1559.12 | 16.1 | 96.92 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$3200.00 – $4023.00 (median $3700.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-08-31
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $2676.55 |
| 15.3 |
| 175.32 |
| ntm analyst |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $973.63 | 0.8 | 1186.00 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $3279.75 | 21.0 | 155.89 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $3200.66 | 20.5 | 155.89 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $2371.81 | 15.1 | 156.90 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $1075.65 | 16.1 | 66.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $3276.74 | 15.3 | 214.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1256.65 | 0.8 | 1530.75 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $4515.77 | 21.0 | 214.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $4406.86 | 20.5 | 214.64 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $839.84 | 16.1 | 52.20 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $3868.85 | 15.3 | 253.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $1483.73 | 0.8 | 1807.36 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $5331.78 | 21.0 | 253.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $5203.19 | 20.5 | 253.42 | Analyst | medium |