Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bally's Corp. (BALY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.62-6.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BALY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations improves to positive | A primary condition in Bally's Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is > 0 cash from operations. | Broken | Cash from operations remains negative beyond 2027-Q1 | Cash from operations: $-120.915M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > 0 cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 14, 2026-120,915,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and development story, not an established durable compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: recent revenue growth is encouraging, but earnings quality is loss-making and management execution is rated volatile.
The valuation evidence is mixed: BALY is described as cheap versus peers, but the model also shows a 37% premium to peers and low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low. Valuation fell sharply in the recent period, but the evidence does not show that this resolves the gap between growth plans and execution risk.
Near term, revenue growth across key segments and rising consolidated revenue support the operating picture. However, the UK gaming tax increase reduced second-quarter EBITDAR by $39 million, with management offsetting about 65%, and consecutive earnings misses make the next-quarter risk elevated. Over the multi-year view, Chicago, Bronx, and Las Vegas projects could add to the business, but timelines and delivery remain important uncertainties.
The thesis depends on continued segment revenue growth, effective margin management, and progress on the resort developments. Near term, results from sector bellwethers such as LVS, DKNG, and WYNN could signal whether sector momentum persists; materially slower GDP growth would be a further risk for this growth-sensitive sector.
Over the next one to three years, BALY’s growth opportunities are meaningful, but the loss-making profile, repeated earnings misses, and large development plans leave the long-term thesis dependent on execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improves to positive territory |
| Bally's is improving operating income, reaching $91.6M in 2026-Q1 from a loss last quarter. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $0 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 |
Operating income: $-34.019M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $90M operating income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 2026-34,019,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth sustains above recent levels | A primary condition in Bally's Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $755M revenue per quarter. | Intact | Quarterly revenue falls below $510M after 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $792.234M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $755M revenue per quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 2026792,234,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-4.01 → $-4.96 · observed estimates
$3.43B → $3.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-4.01 | $3,428,676,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-4.01 | $3,428,676,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-4.01 | $3,428,676,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-4.01 | $3,428,676,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.20 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.20 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.20 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.20 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-4.01 | $3,428,676,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.20 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.20 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.20 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.20 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.20 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-4.01 | $3,428,676,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.20 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.20 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.20 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-3.40 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.40 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.40 | $3,428,626,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-4.01 | $3,428,676,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-4.01 | $3,428,676,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-4.01 | $3,428,676,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-4.01 | $3,428,676,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-4.01 | $3,428,676,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-4.01 | $3,428,676,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-4.77 | $3,444,351,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-4.77 | $3,444,351,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-4.77 | $3,444,351,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-4.77 | $3,444,351,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-4.94 | $3,439,247,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-4.95 | $3,432,984,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-4.96 | $3,431,609,750 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.