Bally's Corp. (BALY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.14-10.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BALY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -77.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 90.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BALY — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-03
CFO — Mira Mircheva: The CFO is resigning for personal reasons with a named interim successor (the President) and a transition period, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Progress on this major project is crucial for Bally's long-term growth strategy.
Supportive ifBally's Bronx project starts construction as planned, signaling strong commitment to growth.
Worry ifThere are delays or funding issues in construction. This affects project timelines.
Why it matters: Details about the credit agreement can help explain Bally's finances. This is important for future growth.
Watch forBally's shares good news about the credit agreement. This helps improve financial stability.
Also watch forThere is negative news or delays about the credit agreement.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows Bally's is controlling costs and making more money. This could help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $100 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income is below $91.6 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Completion of this project is key to Bally's growth and market presence in Illinois.
Supportive ifBally's Chicago project finished construction on time. It is ready to open.
Worry ifDelays in construction or licensing push back the opening date.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$306 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $741 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,457 loss on $10,000 · 54.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for Bally's financial health. It shows better cash management and efficiency.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative in Q2.
Why it matters: Getting financing is key for the $4 billion Bronx project and its timeline.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about a big capital raise or financing deal for the Bronx project.
Worry ifNo news on financing or delays in raising capital.
Why it matters: A positive shift in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery for Bally's.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is improving. This shows a recovery phase.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative. This suggests decline continues.
Why it matters: How management handles cash flow issues will affect investor trust.
Watch forManagement has a clear plan to improve cash flow. They will share this soon.
Also watch forManagement has not shared any updates or plans for cash flow.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth shows Bally is doing well with its plans. This can help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth turns positive year over year, exceeding $755.7M.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: Good margin management will help reduce the effects of the UK gaming tax increase.
Watch forManagement says margins are better in the Intralot B2C segment. This is true even with tax effects.
Also watch forManagement warns of ongoing margin pressure or not offsetting the UK tax increase.
Why it matters: Earnings performance will show if Bally's can keep growing despite challenges.
Worry ifThe earnings report shows revenue growth under 15% from last year.
Less concerning ifThe earnings report shows revenue growth over 20% from last year.
Why it matters: Continued revenue growth in the UK is vital for Bally's overall performance.
Supportive ifBally's Intralot B2C revenue in the UK grows year-over-year by more than 10%.
Worry ifUK revenue growth falls below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown after strong growth in recent quarters. It could signal challenges in maintaining momentum.
Worry ifQ3 revenue grew less than 20% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue grew at least 20% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Being able to handle the tax impact shows strong finances. A big loss could hurt profits.
Worry ifBally's Intralot B2C EBITDAR shows a negative impact of less than $39 million due to the UK tax increase.
Less concerning ifBally's Intralot B2C EBITDAR shows a loss over $39 million from the UK tax hike.
Why it matters: Delays in opening may hurt revenue and investor trust. Updates show progress.
Worry ifThe Chicago casino will open on time in early 2027.
Less concerning ifThe Chicago casino will open later than early 2027.