Bally's Corp. (BALY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.62-6.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BALY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 60.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
BALY — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 1, 2026, Bally’s New York Operating Company, LLC, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Bally’s Corporation (“Bally’s” or the “Company”), and certain other subsidiaries of Bally’s entered into an amended and restated loan and security agreement with WhiteHawk Capital Partners, LP, as agent for the lenders, and the lenders from time to time party thereto (the “A&R Loan Agreement”), which amended and restated in its entirety the loan and s…
Why it matters: Chicago is one of Bally's named resort projects. An opening near the stated target would show progress on that plan.
Supportive ifBally's says construction is on schedule. The Chicago resort opens by the early 2027 target.
Worry ifBally's moves the opening past early 2027 or reports a pause in construction.
Why it matters: The UK tax increase cut Q2 EBITDAR by $39 million. The company offset about 65% of that hit.
Worry ifQ3 results show the UK tax hit remains near $39 million, while Bally's offsets less than 65% through sales and cost cuts.
Less concerning ifQ3 results show Bally's offsets at least 65% of the UK tax hit, or reports a smaller tax hit.
Why it matters: Revenue rose from $755.7 million in Q1 to $792.2 million in Q2. Another rise would support the growth trend.
Supportive ifIn the November 11 earnings report, Q3 revenue tops $792.2 million and key segments post year-over-year growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is $792.2 million or less, or key segments report year-over-year declines.
Why it matters: The President is serving as interim CFO while the board searches for a permanent successor. A named hire would end that gap.
Supportive ifBally's names a permanent CFO. It reports no delays in financial reports or capital market work.
Worry ifThe interim CFO stays in place through the next two earnings reports, or the company reports delays in finance work.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$209 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $722 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,434 loss on $10,000 · 54.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The $400 million loan funds early work, but Bally's said it must still raise the rest of the project capital.
Watch forBally's names and closes enough new funding to cover the next Bronx project costs, and says work stays on schedule.
Also watch forBally's delays the project, cannot secure the next funding, or says the opening target moves past 2030.