Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bancfirst Corp (BANF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$115.12+0.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.94 → 8.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BANF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration of SpiritBank acquisition | The recent acquisition of SpiritBank boosts its market presence in Tulsa. | Improving | Acquisition causes earnings or operational setbacks | Q3 earnings miss vs target of no disruption SpiritBank acquired Oct 23. Q3 earnings missed estimates. Q2 earnings beat. Dividend maintained. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BANF is a regional bank with a thesis tied to growing loans and sustaining its net interest margin, the difference between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits. The 1-to-3-year view is intact, but confidence is medium after a recent earnings miss and a sharp drop in company momentum.
BANF trades at a 1.59 premium to peers, and the valuation evidence points to a durable premium. The expectations gap is 0.26, but the snapshot labels the priced-in reading unjustified, so the premium is not clearly supported by current expectations; valuation fragility is low.
Through the multi-year view, loan growth and a rising net interest margin support earnings capacity: loans were $8.7 billion at September 30, and the margin rose to 3.85% in Q3. Near term, the latest quarter missed, momentum fell sharply, nonaccrual loans rose, and expenses increased year over year, while management describes expenses as in line with plan.
The thesis depends on BANF sustaining loan growth and its margin while keeping credit quality healthy; nonaccrual loans have risen, with allowance coverage unchanged. A guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the broader banking backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, BANF’s core growth priorities support an intact thesis, but the latest miss, credit-quality trend, and premium valuation leave execution as the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company consistently increases its dividend, now at $0.49 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.46 |
Dividend per share: $0.49 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.49 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.49 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS at or above $7.22 in FY2026 | BancFirst is growing steadily with EPS expected above $7.2 in 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $7.22 in FY2026 | Diluted EPS: $1.97 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7.22 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 20261.97 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income at or above $63 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income rose from $71 million to $80 million in one year. | Intact | Net income falls below $56 million in Q1 FY2026 | Net income: $67.254M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=62.99 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 202667,254,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income at or above $80 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income rose from $71 million to $80 million in one year. | Intact | Operating income falls below $71 million in Q1 FY2026 | Operating income: $86.083M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=80 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 202686,083,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.53 → $8.18 · observed estimates
$0.78B → $0.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.53 | $781,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.53 | $781,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.53 | $781,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.53 | $781,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.53 | $781,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.64 | $792,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.85 | $790,350,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.94 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.94 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.94 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.94 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.94 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.94 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.94 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.04 | $795,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.17 | $802,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.18 | $799,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.18 | $799,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.18 | $799,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.18 | $799,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.18 | $799,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.18 | $799,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.18 | $799,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $8.18 | $799,700,000 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.