Bancfirst Corp (BANF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$115.12+0.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BANF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BANF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. BancFirst Corporation Reports Third Quarter Earnings On October 21, 2026, BancFirst Corporation announced its results of operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the related press release is being filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.
Why it matters: The margin rose from 3.74% in Q1 to 3.85% in Q3. Holding that level would support income from loans and other earning assets.
Supportive ifThe reported net interest margin for a quarter is 3.85% or higher.
Worry ifThe reported net interest margin for a quarter is below 3.74%, the Q1 2026 level.
Why it matters: Loan growth helped lift net interest income, and management named earning-asset growth as a key focus. A flat or lower loan balance would weaken that support.
Supportive ifA later report shows total loans above $8.73 billion, the Q3 2026 level.
Worry ifA later report shows total loans below $8.55 billion, the Q1 2026 level.
Why it matters: Management said higher rates may slow the economy. A slowdown could test loan growth and credit quality.
Worry ifBancFirst reports lower loan balances than the prior quarter and a rise in nonaccrual loans above 0.87%.
Less concerning ifBancFirst reports higher loan balances than the prior quarter and nonaccrual loans at or below 0.87%.
Why it matters: Nonaccrual loans rose to 0.87% of loans in Q3, from 0.72% in Q1. A further rise would test management's view that credit quality is stable.
Worry ifThe next reported nonaccrual loan share is above 0.87%, or nonaccrual loans rise above $75.6 million.
Less concerning ifThe next reported nonaccrual loan share falls below 0.87% and the balance falls below $75.6 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $200 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,415 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The deal adds a Tulsa-area bank with $584.6 million in loans and $776.4 million in deposits. Smooth integration can support growth in that market.
Supportive ifBancFirst reports the SpiritBank deal closed and gives a conversion date. Or, it reports the conversion finished without major delays.
Worry ifBancFirst reports the deal was delayed or failed to close. Or, it reports major conversion problems.