Bancfirst Corp (BANF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$112.89+1.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BANF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
BANF — dividend update
Dated 2026-05-28
Regulation FD Disclosure. BancFirst Corporation Announces Declaration of Quarterly Dividend on its Common Stock and an Interest Payment on its BFC Capital Trust II On May 28, 2026, BancFirst Corporation’s Board of Directors declared a $0.49 per share cash dividend on its common stock. The dividend is payable July 15, 2026, to shareholders of record on June 30, 2026. BancFirst Corporation will also pay the quarterly interest payment on $26.8 million of its 7.20% Junior Subordinated Debentures…
Why it matters: Closing the SpiritBank deal would expand BancFirst's market presence in Tulsa. This could drive future growth.
Supportive ifThe deal will close in Q4 2026. It needs approval from regulators first.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to close or is delayed beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong financial health and value for shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly cash dividend is above $0.49 in the next earnings report.
Worry ifDividend stays at $0.49 or goes down. This may show financial trouble.
Why it matters: Higher charge-offs may show worsening credit quality. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs reported above $4 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs stay below $2 million. This shows strong credit quality.
Why it matters: Growth in noninterest income boosts total revenue and adds variety.
Supportive ifQ3 noninterest income grew over 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 noninterest income grew less than 5% compared to last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$72 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $254 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,296 loss on $10,000 · 23.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth helps overall revenue. It shows demand for BancFirst's lending services.
Supportive ifTotal loans reported to grow more than $110 million in Q3.
Worry ifTotal loans reported to grow less than $50 million in Q3.
Why it matters: An increase in nonaccrual loans could signal weakening credit quality. This may affect future earnings.
Worry ifNonaccrual loans remain at or below 0.94% of total loans.
Less concerning ifNonaccrual loans exceed 1.00% of total loans in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong growth in net income signals effective management and a healthy business. It shows BancFirst is maintaining its growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 net income exceeds $69.3 million, which is a 10% increase from Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 net income grows less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows strong finances and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifBancFirst announces a dividend increase above $0.49 per share.
Worry ifBancFirst maintains the dividend at $0.49 or lowers it.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong asset growth and good interest rate management.
Supportive ifNet interest margin is above 3.84% in the next quarters.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 3.75%. This may hurt earnings.