Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (BBW)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.58-6.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.77 → 3.79 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BBW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective leadership under new CEO and CFO | New CEO and CFO roles may improve growth and strategy. | Under Pressure | Leadership fails to improve revenue or profit trends | Rev guidance cut to $500M-$525M vs prior $530M-$550M BBW lowered FY26 revenue guidance to $500M-$525M from $530M-$550M and terminated its Chief Growth Officer due to weak sales. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BBW is a smaller-cap consumer discretionary business with a value-oriented setup, rather than a clear durable compounder on the evidence provided. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance still in the top half of its industry, but management and earnings quality are neutral and risk is elevated.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and priced-in fragility is low. The evidence characterizes the current setup as justified, but provides limited detail on the market’s specific assumptions.
Near term, results and guidance point to pressure: second-quarter 2026 revenue fell 7.2% year over year, pre-tax income declined, and management lowered its full-year revenue and pre-tax income targets. Capital spending remains within guidance, and company momentum improved, but these signs do not yet erase the weaker outlook.
A key favorable signal would be management reversing course and raising guidance next quarter after the recent reductions. The multi-year view also depends in part on consumer discretionary conditions: continued strength among sector bellwethers could support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance could remove that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on whether recent performance can stabilize and management can deliver against its revised targets. The valuation is cheap versus peers, but elevated execution risk and limited evidence on the market’s assumptions call for a measured reading. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $72M to $78M. |
| Intact |
| Pre-tax income falls below $72M in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue between $530M and $550M in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $530M to $550M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $530M in FY26 | Revenue: $115.291M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $530M to $550M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 10, 2026115,291,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stock trades at PE below 8, cheaper than peers | The stock trades cheap with a PE of 7.76. | Intact | PE rises above 15 without profit growth | Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.33 → $3.79 · observed estimates
$0.57B → $0.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.31 | $566,333,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.33 | $566,024,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.33 | $565,423,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.33 | $565,423,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.33 | $565,423,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.33 | $565,423,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.33 | $565,423,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.33 | $565,423,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.33 | $565,423,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.94 | $540,183,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.94 | $540,183,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.94 | $540,183,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.94 | $540,183,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.92 | $537,187,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.92 | $537,187,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.92 | $537,187,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.81 | $529,986,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.81 | $529,967,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.81 | $529,967,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.81 | $529,967,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.81 | $529,967,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.81 | $529,967,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.81 | $529,967,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.81 | $529,967,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.81 | $529,967,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.81 | $529,967,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.77 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.79 | $530,483,750 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.