Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (BBW)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$29.43+1.24%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BBW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BBW — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-27
This Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 contain certain statements that may be deemed to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act. All statements in this report and in such exhibit not dealing with historical results are forward-looking and are based on various assumptions. The forward-looking statements in this report and in such exhibit are subject to risks and un…
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company wants to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend is paid as declared at $0.23 per share.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is canceled or cut.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plans may change growth and how well the company runs.
Watch forThere are good updates on plans from Chris Hurt's leadership.
Also watch forThere is negative feedback or no progress on plans.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much consumers are spending. This affects Build-A-Bear's sales.
Watch forJuly retail sales show growth above 0.5% month over month.
Also watch forJuly retail sales decline or show no growth, signaling weak consumer demand.
Why it matters: This would indicate progress towards the pre-tax income target of $72M to $78M.
Supportive ifPre-tax income reported at or above $75M.
Worry ifPre-tax income was below $72M. This shows a setback.
Why it matters: Hitting this income target is key for financial health in 2026.
Supportive ifPre-tax income reported between $72M and $78M for 2026.
Worry ifPre-tax income is below $70M. This raises worries about making money.
Why it matters: Higher capital expenditures may show more investment in growth. This could help future results.
Supportive ifSpending was over $25 million in fiscal 2026.
Worry ifSpending was under $22 million.
Why it matters: If new locations drop below this target, it shows problems with expansion.
Worry ifNet new unit growth reported at less than 50 locations for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifNet new unit growth meets or exceeds 50 locations.
Why it matters: This growth is key to expanding market presence and driving future sales.
Supportive ifManagement reports net new unit growth of at least 50 locations.
Worry ifNet new unit growth reported below 50 locations.
Why it matters: Reaching this target is key for Build-A-Bear's growth plans. It shows if the company can expand its sales effectively.
Supportive ifRevenue for 2026 reaches at least $530M, showing strong growth.
Worry ifRevenue is below $500M. This shows weak sales.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows the company is investing in growth and expansion.
Supportive ifCapital spending of $22 million or more is reported for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is less than $20 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Chris Hurt's plans could drive growth and improve company performance.
Watch forA public announcement will share specific plans for growth.
Also watch forNo clear plans or no initiatives were announced.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company wants to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid on time without any cuts.
Worry ifThe company says it will cut or stop the dividend.
Why it matters: If revenue drops below this level, it shows sales problems. It also means management is less hopeful.
Worry ifQ3 total revenues were less than $115 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenues were more than $115 million.
Why it matters: If pre-tax income drops below this number, it shows profits are getting worse. This could lead to more cuts in guidance.
Worry ifQ3 pre-tax income was less than $11.6 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 pre-tax income was more than $11.6 million.
Why it matters: Going above this target would show strong growth. It would also mean management is doing well with their plans.
Supportive ifNet new unit growth reported above 50 locations by year-end.
Worry ifNet new unit growth reported below 50 locations by year-end.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $482 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,201 loss on $10,000 · 62.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.