Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (BBW)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.58-6.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BBW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 89.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 81.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
BBW — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-09
Other Events. On September 9, 2026, the Board of Directors of Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (the “Company”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share to be paid on October 8, 2026, to all holders of record of issued and outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock as of the close of business on September 24, 2026. On September 9, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the quarterly dividend. A copy of the press release has been filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current…
Why it matters: The company kept its target of at least 50 net new locations. It added five in Q2, so the year-end count will test that plan.
Supportive ifThe company reports at least 50 net new experience locations for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifThe company reports fewer than 50 net new locations or lowers its target.
Why it matters: Q2 pre-tax income fell to $11.6M from $15.3M. The full-year target also includes a large tariff refund.
Watch forFiscal 2026 pre-tax income lands between $60M and $68M, including the stated tariff refund.
Also watch forFiscal 2026 pre-tax income falls below $60M or the company cuts its range again.
Why it matters: Online demand fell 15.6% in Q2 and 21.2% in the first half. A smaller drop would show the decline is easing.
Supportive ifQ3 e-commerce demand falls less than 15.6% year over year or grows.
Worry ifQ3 e-commerce demand falls 15.6% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 margin fell from 12.3% as promotions and store costs weighed on results. A higher margin would show those pressures eased.
Supportive ifQ3 pre-tax margin rises above 10.1% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 pre-tax margin is 10.1% or lower year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $482 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,692 loss on $10,000 · 66.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company cut its revenue outlook after Q2 sales fell 7.2%. Results within the new range would show the lower target is holding.
Watch forFiscal 2026 revenue lands between $500M and $525M.
Also watch forFiscal 2026 revenue falls below $500M or the company cuts its range again.