Franklin Resources (BEN)

NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-07-07

$34.37-0.20%

Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change

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The thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Compounder

The bull case

Franklin Resources grows revenue about 9% year over year. Earnings per share beat estimates by 29% last quarter. The company keeps dividends steady at $0.33 per share. Share buybacks are authorized to enhance shareholder value.

The bear case

Legal issues with a $100 million SEC fine could hurt earnings growth. Revenue growth is slowing with soft guidance. Share buyback progress is limited despite authorization.

What's priced in

The price is about 13% above our fair value near $30. Analysts expect about 4% revenue growth, which is lower than recent growth but aligns with guidance. Our fair value is close to the Street median.

What has to stay true

Maintain dividends at $0.33 per shareIntact
Capital Allocationsupporting>= $0.33 per share · next 4 quarters (guidance)
Breaks if: Dividends fall below $0.33 per share
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Maintain dividend paymentsCapital allocation
  Commit to consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
  On Track
  Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Dividends declared per share remained consistent at $0.33 in 2026-Q2, up from $0.32 in 2025-Q1. The company is delivering on its commitment to maintain dividend payments.
EPS near $0.49 next quarterIntact
Management Executionprimary>= $0.49 · 2026-Q2 (guidance)
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.49 next quarter
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Achieve earnings growthGrowth
  Focus on delivering earnings growth through diversified global platforms and positive net flows.
  On Track
  Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $2,064.0 million in 2025-Q3 to $2,294.9 million in 2026-Q2, indicating progress in earnings growth. The trajectory shows delivering on the growth priority.
Revenue grows to about $2.295 billion next quarterIntact
Revenue Growthprimary>= $2.295 billion · 2026-Q2 (qualitative)
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $2.064 billion next quarter
Are they delivering?On Track this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Achieve earnings growthGrowth
  Focus on delivering earnings growth through diversified global platforms and positive net flows.
  On Track
  Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $2,064.0 million in 2025-Q3 to $2,294.9 million in 2026-Q2, indicating progress in earnings growth. The trajectory shows delivering on the growth priority.
Progress on share buybacks with $67 million repurchasedUnder Pressure
Capital AllocationsupportingRepurchase at least $67 million in shares · 2025-Q3 (qualitative)
Breaks if: No meaningful share repurchases progress beyond $67 million
Are they delivering?Mixed this quarter· 1 tracked commitment
- Increase share buyback authorizationCapital allocation
  Expand the share buyback program to enhance shareholder value.
  Mixed
  Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company repurchased 2.6 million shares for $67.1 million in 2025-Q3. The authorization for an additional 20.8 million shares indicates a recurring focus on capital allocation, with limited substantive delivery so far.

Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.

Read the full Outlook — the long-form 1–3 year hold read

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.