NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading BF-B? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track BF-B free→Warn: Recent financial performance slipped notably this past month, though still top-half.
Brown-Forman owns strong brands like Jack Daniel's. It aims for about $1 billion operating income in 2026-Q4. The company completed a $400 million share buyback in 2025. Profit margins should stay near 25-27% next year.
Revenue fell 1% to $3.9 billion in 2026-Q4. Operating income dropped 10% to $1 billion. Earnings missed estimates in the latest quarter. Restructuring progress is slow and may hurt growth.
The price is about 11% below our fair value near $29. Analysts expect about 1% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this cautious outlook.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $1.0 billion in 2026-Q4
Implement strategic restructuring to position the company for future growth.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income decreased 10% to $1.0 billion in 2026-Q4, reflecting the impact of restructuring costs. The initiative is a recurring focus with limited substantive delivery so far.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“CEO: 'Strategic cost-restructuring initiatives are driving our performance.'”
“CEO: 'Our restructuring initiative continues to benefit us.'”
“CEO: 'Restructuring initiative announced in January 2025.'”
“CEO: 'Strategic restructuring initiative announced in January 2025.'”
“CEO: 'Strategic restructuring initiative announced in January 2025.'”
“CEO: 'Strategic restructuring initiative announced in January 2025.'”
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 25% in FY27
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.93 billion in 2026-Q4
Maintain fiscal 2026 guidance despite challenging conditions.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue decreased 1% to $3.9 billion in 2026-Q4, indicating limited progress towards growth targets. The guidance reaffirmation is a recurring focus with narrow delivery so far.
“CEO: 'We are pleased to reaffirm our fiscal year guidance.'”
“CEO: 'We are pleased to reaffirm our fiscal year guidance.'”
“CEO: 'We are pleased to reaffirm our fiscal year guidance.'”
“CEO: 'We are pleased to reaffirm our fiscal year guidance.'”
Breaks if: Buyback program not completed by end 2025
Finalize the $400 million share repurchase program by December 2025.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The $400 million share repurchase program was completed in December 2025, delivering on the capital allocation priority. This reflects effective execution of the stated goal.
“CEO: 'The $400 million share repurchase program was completed in December 2025.'”
“CEO: 'The $400 million share repurchase program was completed in December 2025.'”
“CEO: 'The $400 million share repurchase program was completed in December 2025.'”
