Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.28-2.12%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.32 → 3.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BFST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain or increase dividend payments, at least $0.15 per share in 2026-Q1 | The company maintains dividend payments, increasing dividends per share from $0.14 to $0.15. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.14 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.15 dividend per share in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20260.15 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BFST is a regional-bank business with a value-oriented, execution-dependent long-term thesis, rather than a high-growth story. The thesis is intact, with management making progress on organic growth and completing the Progressive systems conversion, though overall financial performance remains neutral.
Valuation is cheap versus peers, and the evidence shows no meaningful gap between current expectations and the model’s expectations. Valuation has risen recently, while priced-in fragility is low and the current setup is described as justified rather than dependent on unusually strong execution.
Near term, recent results show organic growth: third-quarter loans and deposits increased, and net interest margin, the difference between lending income and funding costs, rose from the prior quarter. The latest report was an earnings beat, and the Progressive systems conversion is complete, though related expenses increased; a guidance cut remains a key near-term risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued growth across BFST’s markets and whether integration costs settle after the completed conversion. A guidance cut or rate cuts could weigh on the business, while continued strong earnings and guidance from sector bellwethers could support broader financial-sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, BFST’s thesis remains intact, supported by recent execution and peer-relative cheap valuation, but the evidence on overall performance is neutral and the outlook depends on continued delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We grew loans and deposits at a balanced pace appropriate to our level of capital strength, and we did so while expanding our net interest margin by 12 basis points and keeping non-interest expenses in check.”
Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026EPS at least $2.79 for full year 2026 | A primary condition in Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.79 EPS for FY 2026. | Broken | EPS guidance falls below $2.79 for 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.71 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.79 EPS for FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 3, 20260.71 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
M&A activity supports growth without harming capital | A supporting condition in Business First Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is M&A deals completed without capital strain or negative earnings impact in 2026. | Intact | M&A causes capital strain or earnings decline in 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows organically to at least $3.14M in 2026-Q1 | Business First Bancshares grows revenue organically, rising from $2.64M in 2025-Q4 to $3.14M in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.64M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $3.34M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.14M revenue in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20263,340,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.26 → $3.30 · observed estimates
$0.39B → $0.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.26 | $394,718,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.28 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.28 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.28 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.28 | $393,301,250 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.28 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.28 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.28 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.28 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.28 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.28 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.28 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.28 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.28 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.27 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.27 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.27 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.27 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.27 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.27 | $393,317,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.28 | $393,267,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.30 | $393,754,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.30 | $393,754,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.30 | $393,754,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.30 | $393,754,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.30 | $393,754,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.30 | $393,754,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.30 | $393,754,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.30 | $393,754,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.30 | $393,754,550 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.32 | $394,574,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.31 | $391,734,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.30 | $391,734,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.30 | $391,734,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.30 | $391,734,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.30 | $391,734,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.30 | $391,734,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.30 | $391,734,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.30 | $391,734,750 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.