Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.84+1.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BFST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -14.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
BFST — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026, Business First Bancshares, Inc. (“Business First”), the parent company of b1BANK, issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The release also announced that the Board of Directors of Business First declared a common dividend on July 23, 2026, in the amount of $0.15 per share to the common shareholders of record on August 15, 2026. The dividend is to be paid on August 31, 2026, or as…
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows that management is doing a good job. It can also help make more money.
Supportive ifQ3 loan growth is more than 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 organic loan origination growth falls below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful integration would show that management's plan for mergers is working. It can help growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they will see benefits from the Progressive deal by Q4 2026.
Worry ifIf there are problems with integration, there will be no benefits reported by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong capital management. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe board declares a common dividend of $0.15 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe board reduces the common dividend below $0.15 per share for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal a broader slowdown. This may affect BFST's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$61 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $214 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,350 loss on $10,000 · 13.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Increasing net charge-offs may show credit quality problems, which can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs stay below 5 bps for Q3, showing stable credit quality.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs go above 10 bps, which may signal credit issues.
Why it matters: Management is focused on growing the business. Slower growth can affect future plans and investor feelings.
Worry ifOrganic growth rate falls below 5% in upcoming quarters.
Less concerning ifThe organic growth rate is over 10%, showing strong performance.
Why it matters: A lower ratio of bad loans means better quality of assets and risk management.
Supportive ifQ3 bad loans ratio is below 1.25%.
Worry ifQ3 bad loans ratio goes above 1.50%.
Why it matters: Updates on M&A could show how the company plans to enhance growth. It may impact future revenue.
Watch forA big acquisition announcement that fits the growth plan.
Also watch forNo updates or failed M&A attempts that limit growth prospects.
Why it matters: A steady or better net interest margin shows good management of loan earnings and costs.
Supportive ifNet interest margin remains above 3.70% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 3.60% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on M&A can show how the company is enhancing growth. This could impact future performance.
Supportive ifA completed acquisition or partnership can help growth.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in M&A activity show problems with growth plans.