Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.28-2.12%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BFST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -18.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BFST — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026, Business First Bancshares, Inc. (“Business First”), the parent company of b1BANK, issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The release also announced that the Board of Directors of Business First declared a common dividend on July 23, 2026, in the amount of $0.15 per share to the common shareholders of record on August 15, 2026. The dividend is to be paid on August 31, 2026, or as…
Why it matters: Margin rose to 3.86% in Q3 as loan yields improved and funding costs fell. Holding above 3.80% would keep that gain in place.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is above 3.80%, and non-GAAP margin is at least 3.80%.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls below 3.73%, the Q2 level.
Why it matters: Net charge-offs rose to 8 basis points in Q3 from 4 in Q2. A further rise would point to more loan losses.
Worry ifQ4 net charge-offs exceed 8 basis points of average loans.
Less concerning ifQ4 net charge-offs are 4 basis points or lower, and nonperforming loans fall below 1.24% of loans.
Why it matters: The board declared a $0.15 common dividend. The record date and payment date test whether the announced payment proceeds as planned.
Watch forThe company pays $0.15 per share on or soon after November 30 to holders of record on November 15.
Also watch forThe company changes, cancels, or delays the $0.15 payment beyond the announced date.
Why it matters: Loans and deposits both grew in Q3, led by Houston and Southwest Louisiana. Another quarter of balanced growth would support the bank's stated market growth plan.
Supportive ifIn Q4, loans and deposits both grow from Q3. On an annualized basis, neither grows more than 2 percentage points faster than the other.
Worry ifEither loans or deposits fall from Q3, or their annualized growth rates differ by more than 2 percentage points.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$66 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $187 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,350 loss on $10,000 · 13.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The core systems conversion finished in August, but merger and conversion costs rose to $1.395 million in Q3. Lower costs would show that this work is winding down.
Supportive ifQ4 merger and conversion costs are below $1.395 million.
Worry ifQ4 merger and conversion costs are at least $1.395 million, or management says more conversion work is needed.