Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.47-3.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.52 → 0.51 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BGS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage $475M senior notes issuance | It plans to issue $475 million in senior notes to support capital needs. | Intact | Failure to manage debt servicing or additional debt issuance beyond $475M | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BGS is a restructuring and portfolio-transition story in the Consumer Staples sector, with elevated risk and loss-making earnings quality. Its thesis is in a watch state: momentum has improved, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, and the evidence points to re-rating expectations as a key driver. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so the pricing signal is uncertain; fragility is assessed as low.
In the near term, portfolio changes may keep weighing on sales: sales fell 6.8% in the first two quarters of 2026, while adjusted EBITDA grew 0.8%. Refinancing raised interest costs, and the dividend rate was cut, while guidance was reaffirmed as of August 11; recent misses and a 43% miss probability make the next results a risk to watch.
The multi-year view depends on whether acquisitions and divestitures improve the business enough to support earnings while BGS manages debt and interest costs. Near term, a guidance cut or further job-market weakening would add pressure, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, BGS remains a high-risk transition story with some momentum improvement but unresolved earnings, debt-cost, and execution challenges. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Dividend per share remains stable at $0.19 despite challenges. |
| Under Pressure |
| Dividend per share cut below $0.19 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 20% | A supporting condition in B&G Foods, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~20%. | Under Pressure | Gross margin falls below 18% in FY26 | Gross margin: 20.78% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~20%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202620.77751 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS near $0.62 per share | Dividend per share remains stable at $0.19 despite challenges. | Broken | EPS falls below $0.57 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-0.05 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$0.62. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026-0.05 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue near $1.75 billion | A primary condition in B&G Foods, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.75B. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $1.73B in FY26 | Revenue: $383.275M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.75B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026383,275,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.65 → $0.51 · observed estimates
$1.75B → $1.75B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.65 | $1,754,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.65 | $1,754,100,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.57 | $1,755,376,450 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.52 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.51 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.51 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.51 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.51 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.51 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.51 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.51 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.51 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.51 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.51 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.51 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.51 | $1,751,000,000 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.