B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.29-2.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS near $0.62 per share: EPS guidance low $0.57 vs trip $0.57.
B&G Foods is growing through acquisitions, adding brands like College Inn broth. It plans to issue $475 million in senior notes to support capital needs. The company targets about $1.75 billion in revenue and $0.62 EPS in 2026. Dividend per share remains stable at $0.19 despite challenges.
B&G Foods is loss-making with a recent earnings miss and dividend cut. Debt issuance raises financial risk with 11% senior notes. Revenue growth is slow at about 2%, and profit margins are thin near 20%. Executive departures and market selloff add uncertainty.
The price is about 51% below our fair value near $8. Analysts expect only 2% revenue growth. The market prices in ongoing financial stress and slow recovery, which aligns with our cautious view.
Breaks if: Failure to manage debt servicing or additional debt issuance beyond $475M
Breaks if: Dividend per share cut below $0.19
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving fundamentals through management's strategic priorities. The current thesis state indicates a cautious approach, as recent performance has not met industry standards.
The market appears to be pricing in a justified valuation with a low expectations gap. However, B&G Foods is trading at a premium compared to its peers, suggesting that investors may have mixed views on its future potential.
Management is actively reshaping the portfolio through M&A activities, but recent financial performance has been neutral and loss-making. Near-term risks are elevated, with a significant probability of missing earnings expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its strategic priorities effectively, particularly in M&A and capital allocation. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector peers will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reduced dividend rate to $0.38 per share per annum starting July 2026 to manage cash flow.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reduced the dividend rate from $0.76 to $0.38 per share per annum effective July 2026 to manage cash flow. Dividend per share was $0.19 in 2026-Q1 and reduced to $0.095 in 2026-Q2 reflecting this change. The trajectory shows active dividend management consistent with stated priorities.
“Dividend rate reduced from $0.76 to $0.38 per share per annum starting July 2026.”
“Dividend per share was $0.19 for the quarter.”
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 18% in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.57 in FY26
Reduced dividend rate to $0.38 per share per annum starting July 2026 to manage cash flow.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reduced the dividend rate from $0.76 to $0.38 per share per annum effective July 2026 to manage cash flow. Dividend per share was $0.19 in 2026-Q1 and reduced to $0.095 in 2026-Q2 reflecting this change. The trajectory shows active dividend management consistent with stated priorities.
“Dividend rate reduced from $0.76 to $0.38 per share per annum starting July 2026.”
“Dividend per share was $0.19 for the quarter.”
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $1.73B in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, B&G Foods faces a complex landscape with both opportunities and risks. The company's ability to navigate these challenges will be key to its future performance. Not investment advice.